洪水···世界···的自···之一···害影···极大···造成···洪灾···同样···饱受···害的···如2···年至···8年···年长···连续···洪水···江流···了极···洪压···随着···规模···的建···巨大···库容···大程···纳洪···减洪···发生···水,···群拦···余超···结合···蓄滞···运用···减轻···要城···洪控···防洪···最大···减少···失。···见,···流域···度体···是有···甚至···灾损···效途···而,···库群···区综···在发···防洪···同时···在需···的理···和亟···的实···问题···表现···三个···（1···水库···调度···水库···不同···构管···息交···不及···有径···预报···度受···考虑···维南···求解···时间···仍较···何提···的水···网耦···模型···方法···前水···时防···研究···方向···（2···游地···滞洪···洪保···防洪···域建···完善···分洪···被动···势必···大损···此,···细化···进模···,发···条件···急避···方法···域防···亟待···另一···题。···复杂···调度···及多···多地···调度···,如···地将···紧密···来,···效预···域的···势,···分重···究意···用价···上所···域水···蓄滞···洪调···类由···主体···统一···策的···亟需···学科···展新···与技···此,···以三···、长···梯级···、长···汉南···长江···洪保···汉北···为研···,从···道径···模型···手,···设分···学分···程实···相配···究思···河道···算、···库群···洪调···滞洪···调度···了深···。论···工作···创新···如下···）针···枝状···流模···,提···种不···独对···代求···效精···一维···拟模···1D···该模···圣维···方程···用θ···法离···方程···梯度···用有···法离···性方···用欧···格朗···解动···的对···结合···正法···河网···单、···高精···。选···典型···试了···靠性···性,···库库···然河···了实···,结···模型···好的···果。···析了···-R···MI···11···成熟···在实···的模···,H···模型···精度···件下···高的···可为···合河···的梯···调度···供有···术支···2）···影响···水传···的敏···子及···规律···了坝···段的···计算···了库···规律···峡库···究对···定河···同坝···、洪···、洪···、和···量持···条件···发生···急变···,分···对洪···时间···性最···子为···位。···在2···年河···断面···件下···了三···库容···律,···坝前···变化···与干···静库···,年···容约···容的···4倍···前平···点位···址1···km···研究···实时···度决···重要···意义···应用···（3···长江···库联···调度···分析···德-···梯级···防洪···影响···了快···预测···群防···深度···络模···提出···考虑···直段···水动···驱动···常规···度耦···。计···状水···东德···滩梯···联合···后的···程,···明乌···白鹤···能进···轻下···压力···分析···江中···调度···所建···为实···调度···供准···预测···,以···库入···预测···,对···般常···模型···水动···驱动···调度···预测···后者···上具···优势···防洪···时入···预报···景场···依据···）针···地物···演进···阻碍···、蓄···响与···提出···精细···处理···引入···限制···概念···了应···容量···络的···可持···,建···滞洪···损失···目标···疏散···移模···提出···基于···算法···容量···径规···（C···RP···汉南···长江···洪保···验证···分析···洪水···条件···淹没···并定···了相···,分···CC···CC···P算···避洪···题,···明所···演进···应急···移模···有效···际洪···过程···QF···法在···度相···提下···减少···间约···,具···的工···价值···）以···洪调···体系···题为···创新···义了···民垸···进动···,推···量-···淹没···动力···面,···P神···流量···-淹···时空···识库···了耦···动力···混联···、分···垸联···防洪···型,···流域···洪优···。选···河流···究对···20···、2···年和···6年···洪水···优化···调度···明,···化调···洪控···削峰···显,···站最···流量···30···/s···幅度···0.···此外···20···实际···没面···化分···减少···.8···淹没···可以···减少···失。···江上···北河···水调···为切···探讨···布式···微服···为背···域防···信息···开发···

流域···报一···文学···重点···容与···一,···域水···防治···安全···行、···科学···社会···发展···重要···撑。···全球···气候···流域···水电···其他···类活···合作···刻改···域气···关键···演化···加剧···源时···不均···导致···旱极···发生···水资···配置···著增···对流···预报···出了···要求···挑战···,亟···并探···水文···论与···充分···文气···序列···有效···进一···径流···准确···靠性···为水···预报···流域···统筹···供科···。本···围绕···境下···旱灾···预警···源优···中面···键科···和技···,选···上游···研究···采用···机器···法和···择与···化算···术,···域非···文智···的先···与技···。研···对流···水文···报预···群安···运行···源高···的实···极其···指导···实际···用价···关研···可进···动水···预报···工程···的深···与深···,可···管理···供可···信息···良好···应用···本文···主要···创新···包括···）以···境下···文气···要素···变规···为切···综合···索性···析、···计及···尺度···法,···析了···流域···年以···环关···径流···的年···变化···年际···周期···等演···,并···用累···率变···较法···估了···子降···自然···类活···流变···响。···明金···域年···和年···体呈···势,···期气···相比···动对···化的···显著···结果···种特···方法···用有···分认···水文···程的···年际···征,···其长···趋势···规律···线性···能预···科学···（2···水预···基于···习的···型由···要深···水循···下渗···、产···流等···键环···理机···其具···非线···能力···需求···模型···单而···注。···受气···变化···活动···影响···机器···法难···刻画···级径···有内···和气···因子···活动···外部···针对···性特···的洪···准确···问题···了基···优化···机器···法的···智能···报理···计了···始化···自适···尺度···种策···准回···算法···A）···进,···立了···溯搜···优化···习机···预报···EL···BS···研究···与传···义回···网络···NN···一极···机（···）和···-B···比,···-I···模型···佳的···和泛···,设···交初···群策···适应···度系···能够···升B···法收···,得···性更···局搜···更强···预报···从而···为可···水预···。该···能有···预报···又保···据驱···数据···、非···合能···优势···流域···时防···提供···撑。···基于···解、···能的···集成···型已···是提···期水···的一···手段···基于···分解···解-···文预···在建···报过···使用···未知···信息···致预···“虚···不适···程实···题。···设计···效避···未知···自适···分解···进而···分模···、回···算法···极限···等先···与方···出了···动态···优化···预报···AV···BS···EL···并在···流域···制断···流预···行了···为全···模型···性能···传统···统计···引入···经济···的D···ol···ar···o统···方法···了一···报整···、预···相关···基准···比预···显著···方面···综合···系。···明,···常用···器学···相比···型能···捉历···序列···演变···提高···中长···精度···计的···动态···略能···新息···整分···的相···,可···服捆···引入···报信···足,···强了···集成···型在···程中···性。···为弥···性水···方法···画预···内在···性及···特征···性,···提高···动径···方法···基础···精度···了基···森林···过程···论的···性径···方法···随机···法解···阳活···流因···域海···相关···区域···子与···流的···滞后···映射···揭示···大气···遥相···及区···要素···时间···流过···响程···用强···出了···-陆···因子···动的···程回···预报···以获···度径···结果···确定···特征···研究···大尺···因子···能够···高预···,气···陆因···驱动···过程···流预···可一···时提···性预···及其···性演···,与···处理···间径···方法···具有···阔的···景。

自古···洪水···是我···最频···失最···受灾···多、···围最···然灾···中,···域干···多,···系复···殊的···气候···水主···在夏···雨活···,汛···的来···限的···流能···的矛···突出···洪水···发,···生命···全造···大危···着流···体系···规划···与完···江上···了世···模最···的水···其巨···洪库···有效···水、···峰,···轻沿···群和···洪保···的防···。然···其流···结构···洪水···合多···力关···紧密···群规···、业···不一···目标···防洪···数量···复杂···维等···给流···群联···调度···解和···定等···大挑···前尚···一套···流域···洪调···及方···制了···防洪···充分···为此···以长···水库···究对···降低···洪压···标,···形势···防洪···用过···临的···题和···颈,···暴雨···性与···求分···础上···层层···研究···对流···耦合···报、···联合···化调···与求···规调···提取···管控···防洪···统集···等进···入的···研究···内容···性成···:（···集了···游干···系的···据资···析了···暴雨···洪水···进而···由工···和非···施组···体防···,逐···了各···护对···洪能···洪需···明了···洪形···要矛···键挑···确了···水库···,其···流水···合的···度原···外,···以李···沱、···宜昌···为控···体设···,为···联合···模与···供输···。研···可为···游大···库群···洪调···有力···支撑···依据···）针···径流···精度···期尚···足实···要求···,引···RF···值降···系统···用多···策方···出模···方案···另一···构建···关键···期径···模型···实现···参数···率定···误差···正;···使用···水数···水文···研发···自适···耦合···报体···溪洛···昌区···高精···见期···预报···表明···F模···能够···测降···间分···量等···为流···度径···提供···降水···息;···参数···实时···法能···画流···特性···提高···流预···;相···降雨···报,···合预···好地···水过···和峰···,尤···峰的···度较···流域···防洪···有重···。（···绕大···库群···洪优···建模···面临···挑战···析流···调度···基础···建了···联合···目标···度模···计了···同算···的D···OA···O混···算法···策略···了调···高效···此外···层层···研究···先后···以川···剩余···容最···峡入···平方···、三···调洪···低为···联合···化调···析了···度策···洪关···的影···果表···立的···型具···的灵···适应···够全···流域···度场···较于···化算···进的···化算···敛性···速度···效果···指标···显优···用三···调洪···低的···略,···筹长···综合···系,···挥水···洪调···,三···最高···位明···,长···游防···得到···改善···）针···优化···以应···程实···的问···建了···群联···优化···果为···常规···则优···模型···MO···E算···OP···决策···现了···解与···选,···于长···水库···防洪···则提···果表···较于···案,···定的···则参···项调···上均···明显···通过···型设···优化···果优···方案···够统···来水···达到···优防···效果···控制···够有···防洪···突破···准的···提高···洪调···余度···提出···方法···高了···游水···合防···水平···较高···应用···（5···当前···息化···应用···问题···实现···洪调···化系···与应···术手···理了···度工···,厘···统业···及相···,开···务化···专业···,实···型服···效解···用和···并设···合应···的系···件结···择了···前端···和数···架构···整合···报、···规则···究成···发了···合流···管理···综合···系统···三峡···纽梯···通信···署运··

随着···色清···的逐···,风···阳能···能等···稳定···常规···组与···能机···容量···快速···与此···水电···电力···将承···的调···任务···少新···网时···冲击···背景···了切···电网···稳定···对水···靠运···康管···了更···求。···电机···水电···转换···设备···成部···耦合···出复···高度···的发···,传···组故···方法···满足···际需···此,···水电···安全···行,···对水···机组···断与···测中···科学···分析···理论···方法···性,···机组···息融···入点···了水···运行···联分···;以···联关···础,···器学···抗学···进技···,构···备的···组故···体系···步引···处理···学习···搭建···机组···线性···测模···幅提···组状···预测···准确···水电···状态···势。···主要···作与···果如···1）···利用···组运···海量···挖掘···源信···关联···结合···散方···据挖···,提···电机···参数···析方···先分···组运···在故···下存···异常···点,···-M···od···方法···运行···行离···,对···不同···果的···数,···类个···给出···后每···对应···物理···通过···理电···故障···行参···,构···散后···故障···务集···FP···wo···法挖···频繁···并提···关联···为电···人员···实际···导建···2）···行参···分析···明了···数间···潜在···特征···基础···合循···网络···了基···U-···DA···电机···信息···断方···统故···方法···故障···忽略···振动···身的···系,···有效···同振···关联···所提···过循···网络···储机···信号···息,···振动···同作···构建···障状···振动···对比···入数···同振···下的···差,···前故···,提···型诊···确度···,通···降噪···器、···输入···手段···了诊···的泛···。将···型应···动轴···数据···机组···据中···表明···方法···够具···度的···果,···复杂···境与···条件···保持···确性···）在···断方···运用···据样···缺乏···故障···致无···有监···下的···练。···破有···障诊···对故···的依···文提···分类···自编···型对···组运···数据···监督···类。···过自···将高···组运···数据···低维···空间···对抗···法使···征空···样本···先验···合分···此基···研究···督下···类器···失函···建了···分类···自编···无监···聚类···通过···承多···据应···,该···将高···入样···的降···从高···分布···空间···类别···被成···同一···不同···心间···,具···的聚···。最···水电···际运···数据···方法···10···聚类···与召···验证···程应···。（···纯的···组故···方法···足机···维护···,需···组状···过程···析故···机理···有的···测方···单步···系,···单步···拟合···较为···但无···精确···组状···趋势···工程···用价···真正···组状···,发···早期···兆,···对水···运行···势分···出了···分模···和卷···网络···非线···预测···该方···先进···分解···强非···非线···电机···信号···中心···中的···态分···各个···态分···卷积···络输···各个···结合···操作···同模···间的···各个···局部···构建···输出···网络···型。···模型···水电···盖振···数据···测结···所提···有较···合误···高的···数,···精确···振动···步预···5）···述理···成果···开发···面向···水电···源信···与故···系统···融合···组多···数据···了统···数据···组知···平台···据电···数据···报告···更新···先验···实现···关联···故障···故障···趋势···状态···功能···该系···已成···至湖···河抽···电站···站运···提供···导与···议。

随着···济发···力需···速增···能资···与利···逐渐···长江···已建···批调···大、···力较···型水···,流···模混···群调···格局···形成···,梯···投产···产生···济效···会效···时,···下游···文情···下游···洪发···了新···梯级···下游···系紧···游水···度运···下游···在随···水力···不确···剧,···时间···响下···发电···、蓄···期调···期时···影响···库水···、水···、汛···等运···。目···水利···步入···设到···理的···型期···在摸···水库···运行···基础···量解···水库···运行···水库···电影···待解···键科···程技···。为···文以···游水···研究···综合···库调···电能···运筹···工智···论体···兴技···用问···和数···、模···化分···程实···相结···究思···别以···险与···力为···,深···地开···游水···度运···游水···发电···研究···成果···梯级···度通···等相···调度···得以···用,···水库···决策···借鉴···论文···作内···新性···下:···以水···史调···数据···,结···调度···运行···挑选···、前···、入···库以···时段···为影···组建···子集···考虑···据特···策树···定时···位作···输出···提出···于水···库容···水位···标,···,针···因子···取和···参数···定的···采用···数和···作为···入因···性评···,并···形P···en···对输···个数···超参···优化···基础···立了···策树···成模···库调···提取···形成···历史···程和···验的···度规···验结···,决···其集···在水···规则···用时···强的···适用···2）···库群···度时···误差···引入···回归···法并···库调···,提···种融···区间···的水···滚动···法,···低了···动模···累积···同时···于多···机森···输出···,建···级整···调度···探明···逐级···间误···规律···步,···级逐···模拟···时段···差与···积误···耦合···在此···,建···于机···算法···上游···库群···度模···验结···,构···库群···拟模···精度···可为···域水···拟提···。（···绕不···条件···防洪···险分···,综···预报···下泄···水位···线等···性,···一种···机微···理论···风险···法;···结合···游水···拟调···,推···峡入···各阶···递推···现了···回归···论和···洪演···微分···无缝···进而···三峡···洪水···原点···式,···各时···最大···,提···种考···模型···性的···防洪···险分···,克···统随···方程···不确···素正···设的···在此···,分···同区···精度···起调···景下···库群···度对···库调···、防···影响···结果···受上···群模···模型···性及···报误···定性···三峡···洪水···均值···动,···定性···逐步···水位···围逐···。（···上游···调蓄···下游···发电···线,···述基···息理···叶斯···优化···分位···森林···滚动···法,···旬尺···上游···模拟···型,···上游···调蓄···渡及···库水···内分···规律···步,···调度···出作···输入···电量···目标···考虑···流量···等约···立金···游-···级水···长期···化调···,在···上,···析了···型来···下金···游梯···砻江···岷江···嘉陵···、乌···水库···运行···江下···峡梯···水量···电量···调蓄···标的···实验···明,···来水···,长···各子···级调···基本···库容···致,···梯级···身调···强且···流梯···,其···量和···量能···于其···域梯··

随着···会经···速发···能源···清洁···利用···速增···大批···级水···继建···入运···库群···的水···系统···行态···具格···而,···联合···行在···洪、···生态···综合···同时···剧了···源系···杂、···强耦···,使···优化···管理···的复···和技···日益···给水···合优···带来···挑战···群联···调度···不确···多种···求等···响,···间水···力联···,是···型的···、非···强耦···杂约···问题···题的···定求···是水···理研···的热···点。···本文···库群···化调···临的···学问···合运···能源···筹学···动力···论与···以实···水能···综合···用为···研究···水库···水库···规模···库群···模下···源系···调度···方法···了的···为水···际生···提供···研究···论文···研究···创新···括:···为进···升单···中长···优化···题求···时性···了基···段模···判据···中长···优化···次两···效优···。研···建立···中长···优化···阶段···分析···段模···效益···数凹···单调···求了···阶段···化调···中间···态变···判据···,借···治之···,将···优化···换为···进的···问题···解,···提出···两阶···最优···水库···发电···次两···效优···。三···实例···果表···究工···的逐···段高···方法···度高···速度···著提···库中···电优···计划···运行···实时···2）···机来···下水···短期···电预···调度···建立···预报···水库···期嵌···发电···合系···学模···究工···有嵌···调度···究基···建立···长中···套发···调度···分析···差对···电预···最优···影响···进而···系统···反馈···经典···论方···出了···效的···套预···对预···的反···响应···在此···,建···库长···嵌套···电调···系统···模型···峡水···究对···相关···析结···,本···建模···够及···实际···程中···水与···水的···差,···为合···报调···,从···来水···性条···库运···效益···）针···水库···期发···调度···化方···于局···和收···性差···,且···寻优···面临···空间···量级···无法···多重···束处···,提···区参···应更···进化···综合···式、···柔性···同优···梯级···优化···束处···。研···提出···库群···量约···约束···度评···,并···综合···式、···柔性···同优···梯级···优化···束处···;此···提出···根据···应度···区参···应更···进差···算法···沙江···三峡···库群···对象···实验···明所···进差···算法···函数···实例···均取···好表···合所···约束···略能···应对···水库···调度···杂约···难题···改善···化方···级水···化调···领域···性。···针对···库群···优化···个目···馈关···定量···问题···了结···标优···方法···概念···标优···关系···析方···究工···了梯···群供···电-···合优···模型···约束···态规···得到···优化···题非···集;···级水···水-···环境···优化···果非···集空···特性···支配···行插···构建···发电···目标···面函···采用···析方···两两···归一···空间···数值···量化···库群···度目···互馈···为梯···群多···化调···间互···解析···种新···途径···）面···度、···、非···大规···水库···期联···优化···题高···求解···提出···两阶···分配···调性···策略···逐次···态规···究工···弃水···忽略···下泄···量耦···的前···推导···大规···水库···发电···题逐···动态···模降···中,···水库···用动···进行···发电···推函···函数···,结···数特···阶段···配问···性,···基于···结论···优空···弛策···而提···弛逐···动态···化方···包含···水库···上游···混联···为研···开展···析结···,本···出的···次逼···规划···统逐···动态···保障···度的···著提···收敛···该方···实现···水库···成的···源系···经济···供可···术支··

现代···发展···化石···消耗···活动···植被···引发···了全···效应···了全···和海···的上···发了···的气···反应···源系···到了···响。···化通···流域···和蒸···导致···资源···和空···分配···变,···干旱···灾害···事件···,也···源管···一系···。水···作为···管理···部分···资源···配置···了重···,但···经济···受到···环境···严重···与此···随着···电能···的发···域水···发规···扩大···域水···管理···出了···求。···,亟···梯级···联合···度研···探求···电站···化建···模型···法,···流域···源综···率;···面,···入研···握气···对流···源以···水电···调度···,预···流域···变化···及水···的潜···局,···够积···气候···水电···略发···挑战···因气···所带···失。···述问···文围···变化···流域···电站···电调···了相···,重···不同···化情···下流···水电···调度···规律···究气···背景···梯级···联合···度模···效求···。研···取得···有意···究成···要研···和成···:（···究工···构建···未来···化影···沙江···径流···型,···选取···L-···2M···DG···-E···PS···M5···R、···OC···M-···M和···ES···M五···气候···结合···模型···了三···变化···RC···6、···4.···CP···）下···0年···21···50···江干···,并···础上···an···en···l趋···法分···沙江···来径···化特···究结···,由···变化···间的···,金···域未···表现···同的···势,···CP···和R···.5···金沙···径流···趋势···CP···情景···径流···趋势···结果···耦合···候模···径流···型能···预见···效揭···江流···典型···量变···,为···级水···远期···源运···与开···提供···撑。···在考···水电···联系···上,···水电···变化···总发···化之···系,···提出···基于···息的···索策···够有···智能···求解···优化···题时···速度···,针···的布···法存···部收···索速···的缺···入参···应调···和弹···策略···差分···vy···则,···算法···更新···行了···有效···算法···能力···所提···现了···下游···电站···电优···模型···求解···结果···所提···法收···快,···度高···强的···。（···上述···基础···未来···金沙···径流···果,···三种···化情···来金···游四···的年···电量···势,···对径···的不···,引···蒙特···Va···风险···法,···量指···状态···水电···来年···。研···表明···CP···情景···来金···游四···的年···电量···提高···P4···景下···平均···变化···明显···P8···景下···平均···会有···降;···度为···时,···2.···下金···游四···的未···电量···大于···9亿···h,···4.···下未···电量···大于···2亿···h,···8.···下未···电量···大于···9亿···h,···沙江···来水···布局···考依···4）···级水···目标···度问···立了···电站···发电···型,···NS···II···论提···用于···目标···题的···布谷···。同···多目···鸟算···入了···案集···用了···发散···策略···搜索···有效···算法···级水···目标···题的···运用···法实···沙江···级水···型年···发电···结果···提出···收敛···,求···高。···金沙···30···多目···调度···模拟···表明···2.···下,···0年···电量···出力···矛盾···下降···P4···景下···电量···出力···性表···的趋···CP···情景···发电···证出···盾性···大的···（5···级水···合优···的实···出发···了模···系统···方案···技术···了系···能与···计。···A架···论基···建立···SO···统总···,对···证系···了重···低了···耦合···此基···设计···了金···游梯···站联···调度···证系···统基···S模···,通···模型···编排···文特···象预···中短···预报···期发···调度···经济···模块···统一···完成···心功···合服···,最···地复···资源···资源···同时···提前···调度···改造···研究···化调···的设···算法···有效···开来···了系···扩展··

长江···生流···中游···洪水···陵矶···洪形···。为···洪压···出了···、向···库配···水库···矶防···控制···化方···模拟···多个···偿控···方案···三峡···城陵···按不···水位···保证···两种···度目···出了···种调···转换···位（···标转···）的···度优···，通···模拟···量分···同调···转换···城陵···防洪···度的···结果···在不···游荆···防洪···不增···库区···险的···，三···对城···洪补···水位···库运···15···提升···调度···的1···m;···溪洛···家坝···配合···度目···水位···为1···m,···小中···应对···水的···力。