动态情形下退化相依多部件可修系统建模与分析

项目来源

国家自然科学基金(NSFC)

项目主持人

沈静远

项目受资助机构

南京理工大学

立项年度

2018

立项时间

未公开

项目编号

71801128

项目级别

国家级

研究期限

未知 / 未知

受资助金额

19.00万元

学科

管理科学-管理科学与工程-工业工程与质量管理

学科代码

G-G01-G0108

基金类别

青年科学基金项目

关键词

可修系统 ; 系统可靠性 ; 退化相依 ; 可靠性指标 ; 多部件系统 ; 可修系统 ; 系统可靠性 ; 退化相依 ; 可靠性指标 ; 多部件系统

参与者

张凤霞;张延静;冯泽彪;王娟;周小龙;屠雅楠

参与机构

南京理工大学;南京邮电大学;南昌航空大学

项目标书摘要:目前,高可靠性已成为系统研制、生产和使用过程中的普遍要求。但是,系统的动态性和部件间的相依性为建模和分析带来了很大的困难和挑战。因而,对动态情形下退化相依的多部件可修系统的研究,无论从国家战略层面还是科技发展的角度,都具有十分重要的意义。..本项目拟就动态情形下退化相依多部件可修系统的建模与分析进行深入研究。首先,从实际背景和现有文献中抽象出系统动态性和部件退化相依性的作用机理,并给出科学的数学描述。其次,构建多种动态情形下退化相依多部件可修系统的可靠性和维修性模型。最后,基于这些新模型,将提出一些新的可靠性和维修性指标,并推导出相关指标的计算公式,同时进行特征分析与比较分析。..本项目的研究成果不仅有潜在的实际应用,而且可扩展和丰富可靠性和维修性建模理论与方法。研究成果也可应用于管理科学与工程的其它方向,如供应链管理、风险管理和项目管理等领域。

Application Abstract: Nowadays high reliability has become the general requirement to develop,produce and use systems.However,the dynamic features of the system and the dependence between components have brought great difficulties and challenges for system modeling and analysis.Therefore,the study of reparable multi-component systems with degradation dependence under dynamic situations is of great significance both in the national strategic level and in the scientific and technological development...The present project will be carried out on the modeling and analysis for reparable multi-component systems with degradation dependence under dynamic situations.First of all,mechanism of system dynamic features and degradation dependence will be abstracted from the actual background and the existing literature,and then expressed by scientific mathematical methods.Secondly,several reliability and maintenance models will be developed for reparable multi-component systems with different types of degradation dependence under different dynamic situations.Finally,some new reliability and maintenance indexes will be proposed for the new models,and expressions for relevant indexes will be derived.Meanwhile,the characteristics and comparative analysis will be carried out for some indexes...The results of the present project not only have potential practical applications,but also can extend and enrich the theories and methods of reliability and maintenance modeling.The research results can also be applied to other directions of management science and engineering,such as supply chain management,risk management and project management.

项目受资助省

江苏省

项目结题报告(全文)

高可靠性已成为当前系统研制、生产和使用过程中的普遍要求。但是,系统的动态性和部件间的相依性为建模和分析带来了很大的困难和挑战。因而,对动态情形下退化相依的多部件可修系统的研究,无论从国家战略层面还是科技发展的角度,都具有十分重要的意义。本项目采用“机理分析与刻画—可靠性建模与指标分析—维修建模与检修策略优化”的基本研究路线:首先,在调研文献和实际装备系统(如电厂发电机组、医疗设备、精密仪器系统等)的基础上,以含有切换备件和保护辅件的两类多部件系统为主要研究对象,对系统的动态性和部件间的相依性机理展开了深入分析,并基于随机过程和概率论的相关理论进行了数学刻画。其次,基于机理分析的结果建立了几类新的可靠性模型。针对含有切换备件的多部件系统,引入了待机失效这一新的失效机理,构建了动态情形下老化和待机双重失效机理作用下的系统可靠性模型,提出了新的系统切换策略并进行了优化。针对含有保护辅件的相依主辅多部件系统,根据系统不同的结构、动态性和部件相依性,构建了4类新的可靠性模型,并对不同模型的可靠性相关指标进行了推导和分析。最后,有别于现有大多数研究中考虑检测和维修能完全揭示和恢复系统退化状态的假设,本项目考虑实际工作中人为因素、环境因素和设备因素对检测和维修结果的影响,从三个方面对现有的检测维修模型进行了扩展:(1)在动态情形系统可靠性研究中引入了不完美维修,(2)在周期检测策略中考虑了动态情形对检测质量的影响,(3)在主辅多部件系统的维修策略中引入了针对辅件的预防性维修策略。基于这三个方面分别构建了三类新的维修模型,推导了系统相关运维成本指标,并以成本最小化为目标对检测维修策略进行了优化。作为动态情形下相依多部件可修系统可靠性研究的重要基础工作,本项目的研究成果不仅充实了可靠性理论,扩展了可靠性建模与分析的方法,而且也可以应用在管理科学与工程的其他领域。

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  • 2.自保护相依多部件系统的预防维修建模及策略优化

    • 关键词:
    • 可靠性建模;自保护系统;预防维修;半再生过程;策略优化
    • 沈静远;王春丽
    • 《运筹与管理》
    • 2022年
    • 12期
    • 期刊

    自保护技术作为自愈技术的一种,能够使系统在环境或工况条件变化的干扰下以较高可靠性运行。本文构建了一个新的具有相依主要部件和辅助部件的系统可靠性模型,其中主要部件的退化速率与工作中的辅助部件的数量有关。此外,基于定期检测

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  • 3.Reliability modelling and self-healing policy design for systems with limited resources

    • 关键词:
    • Embedded systems;Self-healing materials;Artificial systems;Design for systems;Performances evaluation;Policy design;Policy optimization;Reliability modelling;Self-healing;Self-healing resource;Shock models;System reliability
    • Shen, Jingyuan;Cong, Shangshang;Zhang, Nan;Ma, Yizhong
    • 《Reliability Engineering and System Safety》
    • 2023年
    • 240卷
    • 期刊

    For artificial systems, the rising cost and inaccessible scenes for maintenance have increased the need of self-healing, which intends to give systems the ability to heal the damage and faults without external intervention like living organisms. Although self-healing techniques have been widely studied and applied in many engineering systems, reliability research for such systems is limited. Besides, the self-healing ability of artificial systems is generally derived from self-healing resources embedded in the system, while the limitations of embedded resources have less been considered in related research. To fill the research gap, in this paper we consider systems operating under shock environments with limited self-healing resources. Two self-healing policies are designed for allocating the limited resources and enhancing the system reliability. Under different policies, new reliability models are developed and a recursive method is proposed to evaluate the system reliability. Further, some new indexes are introduced and derived for evaluating the performance of the self-healing policies. Based on the new indexes, numerical examples are presented in the end to compare the two policies. © 2023

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  • 4.Reliability Evaluation and Maintenance Planning for Systems With Load-Sharing Auxiliary Components

    • 关键词:
    • Component dependence; load-sharing subsystem; maintenance strategy;opportunistic inspection; k-out-of-n model;INSPECTION OPTIMIZATION; NONPERIODIC INSPECTION; MULTICOMPONENT;SUBJECT; MODEL
    • Cai, Xiayu;Shen, Jingyuan;Shen, Lijuan
    • 《IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY》
    • 2023年
    • 72卷
    • 3期
    • 期刊

    In many engineering systems, aside from the main component fulfilling the essential functions, a number of auxiliary components are configured to protect the main component and improve the reliability of the system. In actual operation, the failure or state change of the auxiliary components may affect the reliability both the main component and the remaining operational auxiliary components. However, the structure and dependence between the auxiliary components has been ignored in the existing studies. To fill this gap, we consider a system with a main component and a protective auxiliary subsystem. The latter is a load-sharing k out-of -n system, that is, there is dependence between the auxiliary components. For such a system, an opportunistic inspection and preventive maintenance strategy is proposed. Then, we derive the system reliability using the Laplace transforms and the matrix method. The long-run average cost of the system is then derived, based on which the optimal maintenance problem is formulated and solved by an enumeration method. A numerical example, together with sensitivity studies of some model parameters, shows how the evolution of the parameters influences the optimal maintenance strategy. Finally, the model is extended by introducing periodic inspection and preventive maintenance strategy for main component, and the two strategies are compared.

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  • 5.Optimal Maintenance of a System With Multiple Deteriorating Components Served by Dedicated Teams

    • 关键词:
    • Maintenance engineering; Costs; Inspection; Reliability; Numericalmodels; Games; Steel; Criticality identification; delay time model;imperfect inspection; imperfect repair; maintenance team game;reliability-centered hybrid preventive maintenance (PM);RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE; DELAY-TIME MODEL; PREVENTIVEMAINTENANCE; IMPERFECT INSPECTION; POLICY; IDENTIFICATION; AVAILABILITY;PARAMETERS; FRAMEWORK; REPAIR
    • Zhang, Fengxia;Liao, Haitao;Shen, Jingyuan;Ma, Yizhong
    • 《IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY》
    • 2022年
    • 期刊

    To maintain a multi-component system, different dedicated service teams with different skill sets and tools are often involved. Such a relationship constitutes maintenance team coalition. In most cases, it may not be the best to plan each team's maintenance activities independently as such independent decisions may not achieve the required system-level reliability performance (RP). To balance the reliability and costs of components in achieving a high level of system RP, an efficient method is to assign a failure penalty cost to each maintenance team and then develop their optimal maintenance policy. In this article, the Shapley value is utilized for fair penalty costs allocation to avoid any interest for teams to secede the coalition, whose actual role is to evaluate the criticality level of each component in the context of coalition. Moreover, imperfect inspection and imperfect repair are quite common in practice because of limited resources, technologies and time. To address these practical concerns, a new reliability-centered hybrid preventive maintenance policy is proposed. The optimal inspection interval and age-based replacement interval are determined for each team to minimize the cost rate over an infinite time horizon. Several numerical examples illustrate that the proposed decision-making method is effective in handling such complex maintenance problems involving a coalition of dedicated maintenance teams.

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  • 6.Optimal warranty policy for repairable products with a three-dimensional renewable combination warranty

    • 关键词:
    • Three-dimensional warranty; Renewable combination replacement warranty;Repair limit; Sale price; Expected profit;2-DIMENSIONAL WARRANTY; REPLACEMENT POLICIES; MAINTENANCE POLICY; COSTMODELS; TIME; DESIGN; OPTIMIZATION; STRATEGY; PRICE
    • Qiao, Peirui;Shen, Jingyuan;Zhang, Fengxia;Ma, Yizhong
    • 《COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING》
    • 2022年
    • 168卷
    • 期刊

    Nowadays, the post-sale warranty has become a crucial marketing strategy, and how to design and determine the optimal warranty policy has become one of the important issues for manufacturers. In the existing literature, warranty design and optimization mainly focus on one-dimensional and two-dimensional policies. However, as competition intensifies and customer requirements increase, product warranty terms usually involve three or more factors. In this paper, we propose a three-dimensional warranty policy for repairable products, in which limitations on failure time, repair time, and repair number are integrated. Considering the conflict between manufacturers and consumers, a novel renewable combination replacement warranty is further designed. By developing the corresponding sale price and warranty cost models, a profit optimization model is proposed. From the manufacturer's perspective, the optimal warranty policy is obtained by maximizing the expected profit. A numerical example with sensitivity analysis and comparison studies is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. The results show that the proposed warranty policy can make the manufacturer more profitable and help to reduce the conflict between the manufacturer and the consumer.

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  • 7.考虑不完美检测和最小维修次数限制的退化系统预防性维修策略优化

    • 关键词:
    • 延迟时间模型;非恒定检测误差概率;最小维修;混合预防性维修策略
    • 张凤霞;马义中;沈静远;谢恩
    • 《机械工程学报》
    • 2022年
    • 16期
    • 期刊

    在系统运行期间,通过检测发现系统的缺陷状态,在其未失效时提前采取预防性维修措施,可以有效减少失效带来的严重后果。检测通常是不完美的,且检测误差概率是非恒定的;当检测显示系统处于缺陷状态,进行最小维修,且限制最小维修的次数,当

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  • 8.An optimal preventive maintenance policy for a two-stage competing-risk system with hidden failures

    • 关键词:
    • Planning;Numerical methods;Inspection;Complex industrial systems;Delay time models;Homogeneous Poisson process;Maintenance Action;Optimal inspection;Optimal preventive maintenance;Periodic inspection;Preventive maintenance policies
    • Zhang, Yanjing;Shen, Jingyuan;Ma, Yizhong
    • 《Computers and Industrial Engineering》
    • 2021年
    • 154卷
    • 期刊

    In many complex industrial systems, failures are not always evident to the operating crew, thus inspections are used to identify such hidden failures and then make necessary maintenance actions. In this paper, we study a two-stage system that is subject to two competing risks of degradation and random shocks. Failures of this two-stage competing-risk system are hidden and could only be detected by periodic inspections. For such a system, a delay-time model is introduced to describe the evolution of the system behavior. Random shocks are assumed to follow a homogeneous Poisson process. A preventive maintenance policy is presented in response to the observed system state, based on which the expected cost rate of the system is derived. This paper aims to find the minimal expected cost rate by determining the optimal inspection interval. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and results.
    © 2021 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 9.具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统检测策略研究

    • 关键词:
    • 隐藏故障;多状态竞争失效系统;不完全检测;视情维修
    • 张延静;马义中;沈静远;刘丽君;孟晓华
    • 《中国管理科学》
    • 2021年
    • 12期
    • 期刊

    复杂工业系统的故障中有40%属于隐藏故障,若隐藏故障得不到及时消除,则可能导致巨大的经济损失。本文针对具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统,在考虑不完全检测的基础上,对其进行了维修建模。首先,基于制定的视情维修策略,分析了系统的

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  • 10.A novel opportunistic maintenance strategy for systems with dependent main and auxiliary components

    • 关键词:
    • Auxiliary equipment;Reliability;Maintenance;Enumeration method;Failure dependence;Inspection and maintenance;Opportunistic maintenance;Optimal maintenance;Optimization problems;Sensitivity studies;System reliability
    • Shen, Jingyuan;Zhang, Yanjing;Ma, Yizhong;Lin, Cong
    • 《IMA Journal of Management Mathematics》
    • 2021年
    • 32卷
    • 1期
    • 期刊

    The complexity of dependence between different types of components results in many challenges to estimate system reliability and to optimize maintenance plans. In this paper, we develop a reliability model to study the failure dependence of a system with a main component and several protective auxiliary components. Damage to the main component caused by random environmental shocks depends on the number of auxiliary components in operation. When the execution of inspection and maintenance actions during system operation is difficult, failures of the main component provide opportunities to inspect and replace the auxiliary components. We derive the system reliability using Laplace transforms and the matrix method. The optimization problem is solved by an enumeration method. A numerical example and sensitivity studies of cost parameters show how the evolution of the parameters influences the optimal maintenance strategy. The results show that a high replacement threshold of the auxiliary components is required when the replacement cost of the main component is high. Conversely, the threshold could be adjusted to a lower level when the replacement cost of the auxiliary components and the downtime cost increase.
    © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

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