多灾害及其耦合作用下的城市工程系统韧性评估理论及方法研究

项目来源

国家重点研发计划(NKRD)

项目主持人

顾祥林

项目受资助机构

东南大学

立项年度

2022

立项时间

未公开

项目编号

2022YFC3803004

项目级别

国家级

研究期限

未知 / 未知

受资助金额

285.00万元

学科

城镇可持续发展关键技术与装备

学科代码

未公开

基金类别

“城镇可持续发展关键技术与装备”重点专项

关键词

城市工程系统 ; 多灾害耦合 ; 韧性评估 ; 可视化应用平台 ; 人工智能 ; Urban engineering systems ; Multi-hazard coupling ; Resilience assessment ; Visualization application platform ; Artificial intelligence

参与者

冯德成

参与机构

同济大学;东南大学土木工程学院

项目标书摘要:随着城市化进程的不断推进,确保城市基础设施群具有足够的安全性能以及抗灾韧性变得至关重要。为考虑多灾害及其耦合作用以有效展开城市韧性评价,本研究致力于研究多灾害耦合作用机理、城市基础设施单体的致灾机理、城市工程系统的级联失效机理,并探索多灾害耦合激励下的城市工程系统多尺度多分辨率区域韧性评估框架,力求搭建涵盖不同城市特征的工程系统多灾害韧性智能评估平台。现阶段已开发了人工智能驱动的易损性快速预测模型和物理增强的结构响应预测机器学习模型,构建了城市工程系统的多分辨率韧性评估方法,初步确定了城市工程系统的韧性评估平台架构。具体而言:首先,基于表格数据提出单体基础设施地震概率易损性快速评估模型,并基于时序数据提出了考虑不确定性的单体基础设施非线性时程响应预测方法。考虑到获取高保真数据的成本巨大,提出了多保真数据驱动的基础设施安全状态预测机器学习方法,可有效利用高保真数据精度高、低保真数据易获取的各自优势。其次,考虑多种因素构建了考虑时变效应的单体基础设施抗震韧性量化框架,确定了结构震后损失的主要来源。在区域层次,基于建筑倒塌瓦砾分布、道路交通系统通行效率与可达性、以及消防系统响应覆盖率与响应时间,建立了“建筑群—道路交通—消防”多系统灾害链功能韧性量化分析方法,基于数据驱动实现了区域桥梁群的全寿命周期地震损伤快速评估。最后,确定平台架构的核心为信息感知层、互联网络层、韧性评估层、平台应用层。

Application Abstract: With the continuous advancement of urbanization,it is crucial to ensure that urban infrastructures are equiped with sufficient safety performance and disaster resilience.To effectively carry out urban resilience evaluation considering multiple disasters and their coupling effects,the coupling mechanism of multiple disasters,the disaster-causing mechanism of individual urban infrastructure,and the cascading failure mechanism of urban engineering systems are researched.Moreover,an intelligent multi-hazard resilience assessment platform for engineering systems covering different urban characteristics will be built after exploring a multi-scale and multi-resolution regional resilience assessment framework for urban engineering systems under the stimulation of coupled multiple disasters.At the current stage,an artificial intelligence-driven vulnerability rapid prediction model and a physics-enhanced structural response prediction machine learning model have been developed.Meanwhile,a multi-resolution resilience assessment method for urban engineering systems has been constructed,and the architecture of resilience assessment platform for urban engineering systems has been initially determined.Specifically,a rapid assessment model for the probabilistic seismic vulnerability of individual infrastructure based on tabular data and a method for predicting the nonlinear time-history response of individual infrastructure considering uncertainty based on time-series data were proposed.Considering the huge burden of obtaining high-fidelity data,a machine learning method for predicting the safety status of infrastructure driven by multi-fidelity data was proposed.Taking into account multiple factors,a seismic resilience quantification framework for individual infrastructure considering time-varying effects was constructed,and the main sources of post-seismic structural loss was determined.At the regional level,a quantitative analysis method for the functional resilience of the"building group-road traffic-fire"multi-system disaster chain was established.Furthermore,a rapid assessment of seismic damage throughout the lifecycle of regional bridge groups based on data-driven methods was achieved.Finally,the information perception layer,the interconnected network layer,the resilience assessment layer,and the platform application layer were determined as core of the platform’s architecture.

项目受资助省

江苏省

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  • 1.A total probabilistic seismic loss assessment framework of structures by the KDE-based nonparametric method

    • 关键词:
    • Efficiency;Intelligent systems;Monte Carlo methods;Seismology;Statistics;Cloud points;Kernel Density Estimation;Non stationary excitations;Nonparametric methods;Nonparametrics;Nonstationary;Probabilistic loss;Probabilistics;Seismic loss;Stochastics
    • Cao, Xu-Yang;Feng, De-Cheng;Wu, Gang
    • 《Reliability Engineering and System Safety》
    • 2026年
    • 265卷
    • 期刊

    In this paper, a total kernel density estimation (KDE)-based nonparametric probabilistic seismic loss assessment framework for structures is proposed, and the cloud-point strategy and stochastic nonstationary excitation are well incorporated during the procedure. The methodology framework and implementation steps are first introduced in detail, and then an application example of a reinforced concrete frame is adopted to verify the feasibility of the total KDE-based nonparametric framework. A comparison is performed via the classic parametric least-square regression (LSR) approach, and lognormal distribution is also adopted during the analysis. Moreover, the classic Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is adopted as the benchmark for validation. In general, the KDE-based framework is nonparametric without predefined assumptions of generated curves, making it an effective nonparametric method for probabilistic seismic loss estimation and statistical prediction of structures. Use of the cloud-point strategy greatly improves the calculation efficiency, and the stochastic nonstationary excitation effectively guarantees the real situation of load input. From the application example, the high fidelity and great efficiency of the KDE-based framework (fragility, damage, loss, and other parameters) are suggested in probabilistic seismic analysis. Thus, the total KDE-based nonparametric framework provides a new perspective for further development and in-depth investigation in probabilistic seismic loss research. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 2.A refined TMCMC algorithm for adaptive model updating for the probabilistic analysis of complex engineering structures

    • 关键词:
    • rTMCMC; Complex engineering structures; Engineering application;Adaptive; Probabilistic analysis;PRESTRESSED CONCRETE CONTAINMENT; MONTE-CARLO METHODS; DIFFERENTIALEVOLUTION; SIMULATION; RELIABILITY; UNCERTAINTIES; DESIGN
    • Wu, Yu-Xiao;Feng, De-Cheng;Chen, Shi-Zhi
    • 《STRUCTURAL SAFETY》
    • 2025年
    • 115卷
    • 期刊

    Modelling complex engineering structures involves numerous parameters that are difficult to determine. Many uncertainties in the model parameters cannot be resolved through standards and experiments alone, necessitating model updating methods. The Bayesian model updating method is one of the most popular approaches for this purpose; and it has led to the development of numerous improved algorithms. However, the traditional Bayesian model updating algorithms are time-consuming and may not always yield the most likely posterior distributions of the model parameters in engineering applications. Therefore, this paper introduces a refined transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (rTMCMC) algorithm based on the TMCMC algorithm and improved TMCMC (iTMCMC) algorithm. The rTMCMC algorithm is an adaptive Bayesian model updating method designed for engineering applications; it can adaptively find the most likely posterior distributions of model parameters without increasing the computation time. The efficiency of the rTMCMC algorithm is validated via a numerical example, which compares it with the TMCMC and iTMCMC algorithms. Finally, two examples at both the component and structural levels, updated by the rTMCMC algorithm, and compared with the iTMCMC algorithm, are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the rTMCMC algorithm in engineering applications.

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  • 3.Two-point MPM study of fluidized grains in internal erosion around metro tunnel characterized by an erosion law

    • 关键词:
    • Seepage;Erosion law;Fine-particles;Fluid-phase;Internal erosion;Larger deformations;Material point methods;Seepage forces;Tunnel leakage;Two-point;Water-soil coupling
    • Qin, Tianxin;Song, Zhu;Wang, Chen;Liang, Fayun
    • 《Computers and Geotechnics》
    • 2025年
    • 183卷
    • 期刊

    Groundwater infiltration through openings in tunnel linings can lead to the migration of fine soil particles from the coarse particle framework due to seepage forces known as internal erosion. However, current numerical methods face limitations in capturing the key process of the fluidization of fine particles surrounding tunnel linings within acceptable computational costs. To address these challenges, we introduce an erosion law into the two-point material point method where (i) the initiation of the fluidization of fine particles is based on the relative velocity between the solid and fluid phases and (ii) the fluidized soil mass is transferred to the fluid phase and migrated by the seepage force. After the verification of the present method, the internal erosion due to tunnel leakage is analyzed, with parametric analyses of the initial fine particle content, groundwater level, internal friction angle, and opening location. The results indicate that internal erosion accelerates the soil loss during tunnel seepage, highlighting the need for significant attention regarding this issue. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 4.Development of a semi-active-controlled anti-tension device for base-isolated building structures with large aspect ratios

    • 关键词:
    • ABAQUS;Bearings (structural);Buildings;Earthquakes;Subroutines;Base-isolated building;Building structure;Cyclic tests;Dynamic cyclic test;Finite element analyse;Performance;Semi-active;Semi-active-controled rod;User element;User element subroutine
    • Ai, Huahao;Wang, Haishen;Li, Xiangjie;Pan, Peng
    • 《Journal of Building Engineering》
    • 2025年
    • 105卷
    • 期刊

    Seismic isolation technology is widely used to mitigate the earthquake responses of the structures. However, when installed in buildings with high aspect ratios, conventional isolation bearings can easily fail due to tension caused by the overturning of the structure. This paper proposed a semi-active-controlled anti-tension device for base-isolated buildings, which consists of several semi-active-controlled rods and a monitoring sensor. The semi-active-controlled rods can switch between the performance states according to the sensor's total length. When the bearing is in compression, the semi-active-controlled rods can extend and contract freely. When the bearing is in tension, the semi-active-controlled rods can contract freely but exhibit a large stiffness when extended. Thus, the semi-active-controlled rods resist the tension exerted on the bearings and avoid the overturning of the building. Axial cycle loading tests were carried out to study the performance of the semi-active-controlled rod. A user-defined element was developed and incorporated into the FEM software Abaqus to simulate the performance of the semi-active-controlled rod. It is found that the user subroutine developed can simulate the semi-active-controlled rod's behavior accurately. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 5.Development and full-scale cycling test of a novel rotational friction damper with response-amplification mechanism

    • 关键词:
    • Columns (structural);Joints (structural components);Structural design;Structural frames;Amplification factors;Amplification mechanism;Beam-column joints;Cycling tests;Energy dissipating;Friction damper;Hysteresis response;Response-amplification;Rotational friction;Rotational friction damper
    • Huang, Zhenqin;Zhang, Chao;Yu, Tianhao;Lin, Zijian;Zhao, Feng
    • 《Engineering Structures》
    • 2025年
    • 332卷
    • 期刊

    Energy-dissipating damping devices installed at beam-column joints are effective in mitigating the damage to the joints during earthquakes. However, the deformation experienced by typical joint dampers is generally equal to or less than that at the beam-column joints of the structure, resulting in lower energy dissipation efficiency. To address this issue, this research proposes an innovative response-amplified friction damper (RAFD) designed to enhance the energy dissipation efficiency of conventional friction dampers (FDs) for beam-column joints in frame structures. The RAFD incorporates three rotating joints and realizes the leveraging amplification mechanism through a rational design of its component dimensions. The rotational amplification factor, defined as the ratio of the rotational angle between the joints of the RAFD and conventional FD, is derived to investigate the hysteresis performance of the RAFD. To evaluate the hysteretic responses of the RAFD, three full-scale prototype specimens were designed, fabricated, and tested under two different loading schemes. Experimental results indicate that the RAFDs exhibit stable cyclic performances with negligible damage. Moreover, the RAFDs exhibit special asymmetric flared hysteresis curves, which are significantly determined by their geometric dimensions. Furthermore, the study reveals that the distance from the pin to the adjacent connected plate positively impacts the bearing capacity and the rotational amplification factor of the RAFD. Conversely, increasing the spacing between the two pins has a negative effect on these parameters. The installation type also critically affects the bearing capacity, i.e., convex RAFDs demonstrate a greater bearing capacity compared with that of concave RAFDs. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 6.Multi-output time history prediction for seismic responses of structures with uncertain parameters via deep learning

    • 关键词:
    • Prediction models;Seismic design;Deep learning;Ground-motion;Input sources;Nonlinear seismic response;Structural parameter;Surrogate modeling;Time history prediction;Uncertainty;Uncertainty quantifications;Uncertainty within structural parameter
    • Zhong, Qiang-Ming;Chen, Shi-Zhi;Feng, De-Cheng
    • 《Structures》
    • 2025年
    • 76卷
    • 期刊

    Conventionally, the design and assessments of structures would involve a large number of structural analyses. This process is usually realized by refined finite element models, which is extremely time-consuming. Recent advancements in the data-driven deep learning (DL) models have opened a viable avenue for forecasting time history responses. Nevertheless, most existing DL surrogate models treat the load as the sole input parameter, neglecting the impact of structural properties. Due to this limitation, it becomes impossible to achieve uncertainty quantification of response that considers stochastic structural parameters. Under this circumstance, two methods are proposed to incorporate structural parameters and ground motions (GMs) into input sources for predicting seismic responses in the present study. In this way, uncertainties within both structural parameters and GMs could be considered during uncertainty quantification of seismic response. The proposed methods’ feasibility was verified through a numerical case study involving a typical reinforced concrete frame structure. Furthermore, two benchmark methods that exclude structural parameters as input sources were employed to compare. Additionally, the application of seismic reliability analysis on the basis of these methods is elucidated. The results show that the proposed methods not only enhance the prediction precision and robustness of surrogate models compared with two benchmark methods but also achieve uncertainty quantification of seismic response considering uncertainties in structural parameters and GMs. © 2025 Institution of Structural Engineers

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  • 7.Probabilistic resilience assessment of structures considering the functional uncertainty: A case study for external prestressed subframe in strengthening

    • 关键词:
    • Seismic resilience; Seismic strengthening; External structures;Probabilistic risk; Prestress; Recovery;SEISMIC RESILIENCE; CONCRETE FRAMES; STEEL BUILDINGS; PERFORMANCE;FRAGILITY; DESIGN
    • Cao, Xu-Yang;Feng, De-Cheng
    • 《ENGINEERING STRUCTURES》
    • 2025年
    • 332卷
    • 期刊

    Seismic resilience is a critical index in the earthquake engineering. In recent years, it has received extensive attention and has been broadly used in post-earthquake assessments, especially for the structures after strengthening. At this stage, the seismic resilience is commonly analyzed using deterministic approaches, while the corresponding probabilistic resilience assessment still needs further research. In this paper, a probabilistic resilience assessment framework of structures considering the functional uncertainty is proposed, and a case study for external prestressed subframe in seismic strengthening is performed. The probabilistic resilience assessment framework consists of the probabilistic analyses of fragility, expected loss, residual functionality, recovery time and resilience index, and the resilience developments along with the intensity level or recovery time are detailedly discussed in the procedure. Subsequently, an implementary example of the existing frame strengthened by an external prestressed subframe is given, and the proposed probabilistic resilience assessment framework is performed for comprehensive analyses. In general, the functionality varying with recovery time presents significant uncertainty for each scenario and intensity level, which proves the necessity of resilience analyses in a probabilistic way. With the increase of prestress level, the obtained mean resilience index increases, and the resilience exceeding probability curves move upward for all the conditions, which signifies the superiority of a higher prestress level to increase the seismic resilience and to improve the risk-resistant capacity in external strengthening. In a sense, the probabilistic resilience assessment framework evaluates the resilience development from an uncertain perspective, which provides a significant reference for the subsequent probabilistic risk analyses in engineering structures.

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  • 8.Probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment of high-rise buildings subjected to concurrent earthquakes and strong winds

    • 关键词:
    • Multi-hazard; Earthquake; Wind; Probability analysis; Fragility;FRAGILITY ASSESSMENT; COLLAPSE SIMULATION; TALL BUILDINGS; FORMULATION;MITIGATION; FRAMEWORK; BRIDGES; SURFACE; DESIGN; MODEL
    • Yu, Qian-Qian;Liu, Ling-Han;Gu, Xiang-Lin;Zhang, Yao-Yao
    • 《ENGINEERING STRUCTURES》
    • 2025年
    • 331卷
    • 期刊

    This paper presents a multi-hazard risk analysis of high-rise buildings exposed to earthquakes and strong winds. A concurrent hazard database was first collected, consisting of 35,687 sets of concurrent hazards from 1901 to 2020, with earthquakes greater than M 4.0 and wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s. The probability of simultaneous occurrence of earthquakes and strong winds was theoretically derived and verified through Monte Carlo simulation and statistical result. Afterward, numerical simulation was performed on two high-rise buildings, with special focus on the fragility of the structures exposed to both individual and multiple hazards. The maximum top displacement of the structure under multiple hazards exceeded 0.9 %-24.6 % of the superposition of responses under individual hazards. The annual failure probability of the structure was analyzed through convolution of the disaster risk function and the structure fragility function. It was indicated that the annual failure probability under concurrent hazard conditions was 1.12-2.05 times of that under individual hazard conditions in the damaged state of IDR (Inter-story Drift Ratio)> 1.5 %.

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  • 9.Quantitative multi-index residual capacities assessment of structural components through deep-learning-based image processing: A proof-of-concept study on masonry walls

    • 关键词:
    • Multi-index damage; Residual capacity; Deep learning; Multi-tasklearning; Transfer learning; Computer vision;CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL-NETWORKS
    • Cai, Wen-Zheng;Chen, Shi-Zhi;Feng, De-Cheng;Taciroglu, Ertugrul
    • 《ADVANCED ENGINEERING INFORMATICS》
    • 2025年
    • 65卷
    • 期刊

    Seismic damage to building components and structures results in varying degrees of degradation in performance and safety. Accurate and rapid predictions of future performance and residual capacity of damaged structural components are crucial to post-event recovery efforts. Traditional assessment methods rely heavily on experts who exercise relatively coarse and qualitative evaluation methods. This setup significantly impacts the efficiency and accuracy of structural condition assessments at regional scales. The present study introduces a workflow that integrates computer vision and deep learning tools for rapid, accurate, and quantitative assessment of structural damage. The proposed end-to-end automated damage assessment workflow can derive the residual capacities of structural components (including stiffness degradation ratio, strength degradation ratio, and damage ratio) from conventional images that can be collected by most of the common handheld devices. The workflow features two custom-designed deep learning modules, a transfer learning-based feature extraction network and a multi-task learning-driven multiple regression prediction network. A database comprising 108 laboratory-scale quasistatic experiments on masonry wall specimens is used for training and testing. The results demonstrate the proposed workflow's effectiveness in quantifying residual capacities such as R2strength = 0.993, R2stiff = 0.987, R2damage = 0.987. The workflow can be further improved by employing more advanced models and utilizing a more comprehensive annotated dataset. It can be deployed by both experts and through crowdsourcing in postevent scenarios.

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  • 10.Multilevel Damage Indicator–Enabled Seismic Damage Evolution Analysis and Fragility Assessment of Structures

    • 关键词:
    • Concrete buildings;Earthquake effects;Earthquake engineering;Structural frames;Damage constitutive model;Damage evolution;Damage indicator;Evolution analysis;Fragility analysis;Multilevel damage;Multilevel damage indicator;Reinforced concrete structures;Seismic damage;Seismic damage evolution analyze
    • Xu, Yi-Zheng;Gui, Zi-Xuan;Cao, Xu-Yang;Feng, De-Cheng
    • 《ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering》
    • 2025年
    • 11卷
    • 1期
    • 期刊

    The current performance-based seismic evaluation methodologies can be broadly classified into three categories based on the adopted indicators: displacement-based seismic evaluation, energy-based seismic evaluation, and damage-based seismic evaluation. However, these approaches predominantly concentrate on analyzing either the entire structure or individual components, whereas a clear computational methodology for evaluating the performance from the material level to structural level is still lacking. With the ongoing advancements in finite-element analysis and computer science technologies, it has become feasible to conduct more sophisticated and multilevel seismic performance evaluations of structures. Acknowledging that damage at the material level underlies the degradation of performance in both components and structures as a whole, this paper further establishes a multilevel hierarchical damage indicator framework based on quantitative material damage, spanning from the material level to the structural level. Additionally, a seismic performance evaluation is carried out on a specific frame structure utilizing incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and the fragility analysis method, for the purpose of verifying the effectiveness of the multilevel damage indicators in structural assessment. In general, the damage indicator presented in this paper allows for the assessment of damage at multiple levels, offering a more comprehensive reflection of damage and providing broader application prospects in the future. © 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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