基于移动互联大数据的网约共享出行供需演化机理与调控策略优化

项目来源

国家自然科学基金(NSFC)

项目主持人

陈喜群

项目受资助机构

浙江大学

立项年度

2017

立项时间

未公开

项目编号

71771198

项目级别

国家级

研究期限

未知 / 未知

受资助金额

49.00万元

学科

管理科学-管理科学与工程-交通运输管理

学科代码

G-G01-G0116

基金类别

面上项目

关键词

移动互联 ; 综合策略优化 ; 供需演化 ; 网约共享出行 ; 随机排队网络 ; On-demand ride-sharing mobility ; Mobile connected data ; Evolution of supply and demand ; Stochastic queueing network ; Comprehensive strategies optimization

参与者

夏莹杰;王海;祁宏生;马东方;陈楚翘;张帅超;郑宏煜;陈笑微

参与机构

新加坡管理大学

项目标书摘要:网约共享机动车出行作为新兴的移动互联出行方式,产生了海量庞杂、异质多源、大尺度时空关联的交通大数据,蕴含描述复杂交通系统运行态势的丰富信息,势必对交通系统运行及出行结构产生影响。本项目针对网约共享机动车出行的复杂性和不确定性,构建基于随机排队网络的宏观供需模型,揭示系统供需自平衡机理;在移动互联大数据的驱动下,深入分析个体出行链特征和群体出行模式演变规律,构建供需空间自相关模型和考虑时空关联性的短时预测模型,揭示网约共享机动车出行供需态势演化机理;构建基于智能体的综合调控策略优化模型,开发元模型随机优化求解算法,生成帕累托最优调控策略集,定量分析网约共享机动车出行对城市交通系统运行状态、居民出行结构的影响,实现供需时空资源优化配置。项目在学术上对网约共享出行供需平衡机理、演化规律、策略优化进行系统性分析,在实践中为管理者制定相关政策和辅助决策支持提供理论依据,具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。

Application Abstract: As an emerging mobile connected way of travel,on-demand ride-sharing mobility generates massive,complex,heterogeneous,and multi-source mobility data in a large-scale spatial and temporal association,which contains a wealth of information to describe the complexity of transportation systems and is bound to affect the system performance and travel structure.This project addresses the problems of complexity and uncertainty of on-demand ride-sharing mobility.A macroscopic analytical model of the supply and demand is established based on stochastic queueing networks.The self-balance mechanism of supply and demand is revealed for the on-demand ride-sharing system.Driven by the mobile connected big data,this project deeply analyzes the individual travel chain characteristics and group travel patterns,establishes the spatial autocorrelation model of both supply and demand,develops the short-term forecasting model considering spatio-temporal correlations,and reveals the evolution mechanism of the on-demand ride-sharing supply and demand situation.An optimization model of comprehensive strategies is constructed using agent models.Meta-model algorithms are used to solve this problem,achieving the Pareto optimal strategy set.The results are applied to the quantitative analysis about the influence of on-demand ride-sharing mobility on the transportation system performance and human travel structure,and then used to support the optimal allocation of resources.This project systematically studies the balance and evolution mechanism of the on-demand ride-sharing mobility,and solves its optimization problem.The output provides decision support for policy makers and transportation management.The research project is of theoretical significance and of practical value.

项目受资助省

浙江省

项目结题报告(全文)

研究背景:随着“互联网+”战略与传统交通行业的深度融合,各种各样的网约共享出行平台应运而生。同时,城市交通需求与供给之间的矛盾日益突出,亟须采取政策、规划、管控等综合措施进行优化。因此,研究移动互联环境下交通系统的分析优化、交通行为人因机理与即时需求管理具有重要意义,特别是对网约共享出行的供需平衡机理、演化规律、优化策略进行系统分析是必要且迫切的。以往研究在刻画出行者时变性、非理性的出行选择特征时存在不足,而基于智能体的模型能够详细地描述出行行为,体现出行者个体行为差异性和时空异质性,有助于分析个体对系统整体运行状态的影响。研究内容:针对网约共享出行行为复杂性和即时出行供需不确定性,构造了网约共享出行服务平台、乘客、以及司机的随机效用函数,建立了带有内生供给和内生需求的随机排队网络模型来描述共享出行系统。基于移动互联大数据,构建了基于动态贝叶斯网络的个人出行活动链生成模型,分析了群体出行模式演变规律,揭示了网约共享出行供需态势演化机理。建立了能够描述网约共享出行决策行为的智能体模型,进而构建了综合调控策略多目标优化模型,并提出了优化求解算法,为监管机构对网约共享出行系统的调控提供决策支持。重要成果:构建了基于随机排队网络的宏观供需模型,揭示了网约共享出行系统供需自平衡机理。采用机器学习方法构建了网约共享出行供需时空效应模型和考虑时空关联性的短时预测模型。基于多源异构大数据,构建了电动汽车和汽油车并存的网约车司机行为模型和异质性共享出行平台竞合博弈模型。成果数据:共发表SCI/SSCI论文37篇、EI论文4篇、国际会议论文20篇(其中一篇获得第12届计算交通科学国际研讨会最佳论文奖)。公开国家发明专利3项。培养学科博士后3人(已出站1人),博士研究生8人(已毕业3人),硕士研究生9人(已毕业4人)。项目组成员广泛开展国际合作,积极组织和参加学术交流活动,超额完成了研究目标。

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  • 2.A Grouping Approach to Ridesplitting Optimization

    • 关键词:
    • Integer programming;Motor transportation;Dispatching problem;Greedy algorithms;Integer Linear Programming;Large-scale network;Numerical experiments;Optimization modeling;Service orders;Urban road networks
    • Zhu, Jiangtao;Mo, Dong;Chen, Xiqun
    • 《20th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Advanced Transportation Technologies and Development-Enhancing Connections, CICTP 2020》
    • 2020年
    • August 14, 2020 - August 16, 2020
    • Xi'an, China
    • 会议

    Ridesplitting optimization is one of the hot issues in the studies of on-demand ride services. An efficient ridesplitting optimization model can provide an insightful basis for the platform's decision-making and management. In reality, on-demand ride service orders include pre-trip reservation orders and real-time orders. This paper proposes a grouping approach to ridesplitting optimization for pre-trip reservation orders in a large-scale urban road network. To improve the ridesplitting rate, we combine reservation orders into travel groups which can be dispatched to vehicles and model this process as an integer linear programming problem. Both CPLEX and a greedy algorithm are used to solve the problem and get the travel groups. Besides, we adopt the CPLEX to solve the dispatching problem between vehicles and travel groups by minimizing the total waiting time of passengers. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to a numerical experiment in a large-scale network based on real-world trip order data of DiDi Chuxing. The results show that our model can effectively improve the ridesplitting rate. © ASCE.

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  • 3.On Network Effects in the Ride-Sourcing Market with Heterogeneous Users

    • 关键词:
    • Commerce;Multimodal transportation;Heterogeneous users;Matching functions;Numerical experiments;Passenger waiting time;Stationary equilibrium;User characteristics;Willingness to accept;Willingness to pay
    • Zhang, Junlin;Chen, Xiqun;Wang, Ze
    • 《20th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Advanced Transportation Technologies and Development-Enhancing Connections, CICTP 2020》
    • 2020年
    • August 14, 2020 - August 16, 2020
    • Xi'an, China
    • 会议

    We present a model of the ride-sourcing market where users differ in their characteristics. Passenger demand is derived in terms of passengers' value of time and willingness to pay. Driver supply is derived in terms of drivers' value of time and willingness to accept. Demand and supply are matched based on a general bilateral matching function. Contrary to intuition, we find that both the same-side and cross-side network effects at a stationary equilibrium state can be either positive or negative, which are determined by the signs of terms called characteristic times. Characteristic times depend on factors such as distributions of user characteristics, the endogenously determined passenger waiting time and driver idle time, the returns to scale of the production of passenger-driver matchings, platform price structure, and driver cost function. A numerical experiment is presented to illustrate these theoretical findings. © ASCE.

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  • 4.Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation for Systematic Operations of Shared Automated Electric Vehicles

    • 关键词:
    • Fleet operations;Scheduling;Automation;Charging (batteries);Computational methods;Decision making;Traffic control;Autonomous agents;Electric vehicles;Advanced vehicle;Agent-based modeling and simulation;Charging station;Efficient scheduling;Model framework;Operational scenario;Real-time matching;Services platforms
    • Yao, Fugen;Chen, Xiqun Michael;Angeloudis, Panagiotis;Zhang, Wenwen
    • 《20th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Advanced Transportation Technologies and Development-Enhancing Connections, CICTP 2020》
    • 2020年
    • August 14, 2020 - August 16, 2020
    • Xi'an, China
    • 会议

    This paper proposes a framework of future-oriented agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) for various operational scenarios and optimization of shared automated electric vehicles (SAEVs). We establish an efficient scheduling algorithm between vehicles and passengers, and real-time matching algorithm for vehicles and charging stations. The scheduling algorithm includes two processes. First, each customer finds a candidate vehicle, and then the platform performs the final scheduling. The ABMS framework simulates the complicated matching relationship and interactions among the on-demand ride services platform, passengers, vehicles, and charging stations. Field operations of a large fleet of SAEVs are implemented using the real ride-sourcing order data in the road network of Hangzhou, China. The simulation results under different scenarios are comprehensively compared. The sensitivity of several critical parameters is analyzed, e.g., the SAVE fleet size, recharge mileage, and charging speed. The proposed ABMS modeling framework can be extended to incorporate a variety of vehicle types, and support decision making of advanced vehicle scheduling strategies, pricing, and relocation. © ASCE.

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  • 5.Simulation-based pricing optimization for improving network-wide travel time reliability

    • 关键词:
    • Congestion pricing; travel time reliability; simulation-basedoptimization (SBO); transportation network;SURROGATE-BASED OPTIMIZATION; USER EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL; HETEROGENEOUSUSERS; DESIGN PROBLEM; MULTICLASS; ALGORITHMS; HIGHWAYS; BEHAVIOR;OPTIMUM; DEMAND
    • Chen, Xiqun ;Zhang, Lei;He, Xiang;Xiong, Chenfeng;Zhu, Zheng
    • 《6th International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability》
    • 2018年
    • AUG, 2015
    • Nara, JAPAN
    • 会议

    Travel time variability in a network is an important measure of the transportation system performance and a major factor influencing the decision-making of system management such as congestion pricing. The congestion-pricing problem with reliability maximization as the goal of a transportation network is characterized by expensive-to-evaluate objective functions without closed forms. In this paper, an effective simulation-based optimization (SBO) method is utilized to solve the problem. The network reliability is measured by a weighted average link travel time coefficient of variation (CV) with link traffic flows as the weights. We employ DynusT to evaluate the system reliability as the objective function corresponding to different toll charges for a new toll road in Maryland. The results show that the two optimal toll charge strategies improve the network-wide reliability, reducing the weighted travel time CV by 9.60% and 1.16%, respectively, when compared to the baseline toll.

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