在变化环境下，潮位观测资料的一致性遭到破坏，传统的水文频率分析方法不再适用。本文选用香港地区石壁站1998-2020年潮位实测数据，采用分布参数时变的GAMLSS模型对潮位序列进行非一致性频率分析；基于最优的非一致性模型，利用期望超过次数、设计年限水平、等可靠度和设计年限平均值法推求相应的潮位设计值。结果表明基于非一致性条件推求的潮位设计值可以为变化环境下海岸及海洋工程的设计与建设提供相应的参考。

香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现

为研究全球变暖和人类活动大背景中台风影响下的多年一遇潮位设计值是否发生改变，本文针对鲗鱼涌站台风暴潮过程极值序列，对基于年极值数据的非一致性广义可加模型(Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, GAMLSS)进行了改进，提出了非一致性条件下的泊松复合极值分布模型，并分别采用一致性设计值计算方法、期望超过次数(Expected number of exceedances, ENE)法、设计年限水平(Design life level, DLL)法、等可靠度(Equal reliability, ER)法和设计年限平均值(Average design life level, ADLL)法，计算了潮位设计值。研究表明，非一致方法计算的潮位设计值高于一致性方法计算的潮位设计值，且ER法和ADLL法适用性更广，可为海岸防灾减灾提供指导。

为了改善玻纤/乙基己基酯(GF/EHP)材料的层间性能,分别添加氯化聚氯乙稀(PAM)、聚对苯二甲酸丁二醇酯(PBT)、聚酰胺(PA66)、乙烯-醋酸乙烯酯(EVA)四种增强织布类型,来改善VARI工艺制备的玻纤/乙基己基酯(GF/EHP)材料层间性能,并通过实

选择KK1铝青铜作为测试材料,分析合金经过大变形热轧与时效处理后发生的组织结构及力学性能的改变。研究结果表明:当热轧比例达到70%时,原有的等轴状α相与β相组织转变为尺寸非常细小的片层状结构,从而获得了非常细小的合金组织,经过热轧处理后,试样组织中形成了析出相;在380℃下,时效组织在片层状的细小β相间形成了模糊界面,模糊界面属于（α+β）相构成的双相片层组织。KK1铝青铜组织内均存在α相、β相,同时还有部分k相。经过热轧和时效处理的试样形成了相近的衍射峰,可见时效过程并不会改变铝青铜的组织结构。KK1铝青铜在热轧变形后,表面硬度明显增大,拉伸强度也增大至1095 MPa,各项性能均得到了改善。相比时效试样,热轧铝青铜达到了更高的应变硬化速率。

本项目建立了影响我国的台风空间点过程模型，对空间上每个小区块的强度进行标值；针对某一固定海区，建立了台风经过该海区的时间点过程模型，并考虑台风的自然强度和致灾强度特征变量，进行多元标值。研究发现，我国沿海台风在空间和时间上都具有簇生性。对每场台风的不同特征量进行多元抽样，推导了不同抽样方法下的多维复合最大熵概率模型，并应用于相关海域的台风致灾强度评估中。根据多维概率模型，求解海况平稳期内的海洋平台结构可靠度。建立了海洋平台在台风影响下的可靠性维修过程模型，对不同的导管架平台或台风点过程分布，制定相应的维修策略。进行了相关的物模和数模试验，得到了海洋平台的结构荷载响应关系，为维修策略的制定提供依托。项目的研究成果可为沿海地区台风致灾强度分级、海洋平台选址和船舶航运等提供参考，相关维修策略可为企业节省维修开支，达到安全经济的目标。依托本项目，发表了相关领域SCI论文7篇,EI论文2篇，中文核心期刊论文1篇，申请了软件著作权1项，接收论文1篇，完成1部著作(待出版)。

The intensity division of sea ice regions can provide useful information for disaster prevention. According to different ice conditions, the Bohai Sea and the northern part of the Yellow Sea in China have been divided into twenty-one ice zones, and subsequently grouped in five intensity levels. But this division has many discrepancies and cannot reflect most of the properties of the ice zones. Based on the multivariate statistical sample of the twenty-one ice zones, the principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis are applied to obtain a new intensity division. The cluster results indicate that, the regionalization obtained by the Ward method is recommended. The new criteria increases the number of sea ice zones with higher intensity levels. It is more practical and more conservative for the disaster prevention of marine structures. In addition, this method can present any groups of the intensity division wanted, so it provides more possibilities and flexibility for the application.
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.

海洋平台环境参数的单因素设计标准无法反映真实海况,文章针对该缺点提出了基于最大熵边缘的三维嵌套逻辑模型。该模型采用的最大熵边缘可以涵盖大多数设计线型,如Gumbel分布、Weibull分布、对数正态分布等;三维嵌套逻辑模型可以反映海

Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures.

Decommission platforms can be used as the foundation of offshore wind turbines. In order to reduce the costs of wind power, the joint probability method is applied in the joint design of marine environmental elements. Based on copulas and univariate maximum entropy margins, multivariate maximum entropy distributions are constructed. Sample data of annual maximum significant wave height and corresponding wind speed and current velocity at Point 2 in Lianyungang Harbour of China is applied to testify the efficiency of trivariate maximum entropy distributions. The marginal fittings of univariate maximum entropy distributions and the trivariate data fitting based on normal copula fit the data well. The method of conditional probability can present a joint design of significant wave height and corresponding wind speed and current velocity. (C) 2017 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.