大数据驱动的大型活动全景式安全管理与决策方法

项目来源

国家自然科学基金(NSFC)

项目主持人

张辉

项目受资助机构

清华大学

项目编号

91646201

立项年度

2016

立项时间

未公开

研究期限

未知 / 未知

项目级别

国家级

受资助金额

240.00万元

学科

管理科学-经济科学-经济发展与经济制度

学科代码

G-G03-G0310

基金类别

重大研究计划-重点支持项目-大数据驱动的管理与决策研究

关键词

应急决策 ; 全景式管理 ; 大型活动 ; 大数据 ; big data ; large-scale event ; emergency management ; emergency decision-making

参与者

刘奕;陈涛;迟远英;丁治明;李京文;才智;宫志刚;台运启;刘艺

参与机构

北京工业大学;中国人民公安大学

项目标书摘要:近年来大型活动举办越来越频繁。大型活动涉及人员众多,涉及部门繁杂,手机、微信、APP、安检设备、移动通讯车和应急平台等大量投入使用,针对其突发事件的安全管理至关重要。目前的安全管理以被动的人防为主,很难满足新形势下的安全管理需求。本项目面向大数据背景下的全景式管理机遇,聚焦于大型活动的公共安全管理与决策方法研究。基于多源异构数据融合分析方法,建立基于多维特征的重点群体识别与监控方法。综合考虑突发事件情景建模和多主体多目标的协同模式,构建基于博弈理论和组织行为学的Multi-Agent模型,提出数据驱动的近实时的情景推演方法。研究“数据—模型—知识经验”精准决策、“政府—组织—公众”多主体参与的协同决策和跨部门跨领域协同应对方法,建立深度融合微观、中观和宏观层次的全景式安全管理与决策方法。项目预期能够对常态和非常态下大型活动的安全管理提供强有力的支持和帮助,丰富我国公共安全管理决策理论体系。

Application Abstract: Recently,large-scale events are organized more and more frequently in China.Cell phone,WeChat,mobile communications vehicle and emergency platform system are widely used.It is very important for the safety management under emergency.Depending on the passive prevention,current safety management is difficult to satisfy the requirements under new situation.Facing opportunities of the panoramic management in Big Data,this project focuses on the methods for safety management and decision-making of large-scale events.Based on fusion and mining of multi-source and heterogeneous data,we will study the methods for key group identification and control.Taking the scenario building and collaborative mode of multi-agent and multi-object into account,we need to build the Multi-Agent model with game theory and organizational behavior,and propose the method for data-driven and up to real time scenario deduction.By combining the‘data-model-knowledge’precision decision,collaborative decision making from multi-agencies(including government,organization,public)and inter-department and inter-disciplinary,we put forward the holistic management and decision-making method that involve the micro,meso and macro levels.The project is expected to provide support for safety management of large-scale events under normal and emergency circumstances,and will enrich a series of theories on public safety management.

项目受资助省

北京市

项目结题报告(全文)

本项目面向当前大数据背景下的全景式管理机遇,聚集于大型活动公共安全的管理与决策方法理论及相关实践研究。本项目按照任务计划顺利完成,在四个研究内容的理论与应用层面均取得了较大的研究进展。在理论层面的研究主要表现在5个方面:1提出了基于大型活动多源异构大数据的存储融合分析方法,包括多源异构大数据获取、语义关联存储、多模态实时索引与查询、并行分析计算与信息挖掘等;2以大型活动中较常发生的踩踏事故风险及封闭空间大型活动风险为例,研究并提出了大型活动全过程监控与风险评估指标量化与计算方法;3研究了基于大数据—模型双驱动的大型活动突发事件全景式情景推演方法,实现了基于统一框架下多尺度大数据情景推演的政策量化评估方法,解决了应急指挥跨部门跨层次指挥协调难题;4研究了大型活动中人员行为规律,提出了基于脑科学的认知测量方法及基于重点人员库、时空轨迹分析、人脸识别技术等重点人员识别与监控方法;5构建了基于群体意志与凝聚力的突发事件应急管理的多层次系统框架,提出了基于博弈理论和组织行为学的Multi-Agent模型的“政府—组织—公众”多主体参与的协同决策和协同应对方法。在应用层面:这些研究成果还被成功应用于新冠疫情防控、清华大学的校园安全和2022年北京冬奥会的管理决策及国内/国际疫情社区防控和大型活动相关标准的制定,并形成了五项展示成果:1研发了时空大数据平台,为多源异构大数据的存储、查询和分析奠定平台基础;2构建了大数据架构的数据融合及可视化平台GEO-STRIA,为大数据分析及大型活动风险评估及应急处置奠定平台基础;3建设了“校园安全清华方案”,包括手机APP和校园风险防控和应急协调平台,结合校园安全圈层—区域—要素标准化实践,降低了校园的综合风险;4与辰安科技联合研发“新冠疫情应急指挥系统”,该系统已在20个省、39个地市政府部署,已服务3000多家企业、50多万人次;5牵头建立了“2022年北京冬奥会态势感知与运行指挥保障系统”,将为有效保障冬奥会的顺利进行贡献力量。项目能够对常态和非常态下大型活动的安全管理提供强有力的支持和帮助,丰富了我国公共安全管理决策理论体系。

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  • 1.An Innovative Spatiotemporal Trajectories Clustering Algorithm with Semantic Information Extraction

    • 关键词:
    • Big data;Clustering algorithms;Extraction;Information management;Information retrieval;Intelligent systems;Location based services;Semantic Web;Semantics;Trajectories ;Urban planning;Data clustering;Semantic data;Semantic data clustering;Semantic information extractions;Spatio-temporal trajectories;Spatiotemporal trajectory data;Spatiotemporal trajectory data clustering;Trajectory clustering
    • Ding, Zhiming;Yan, Jin;Jiang, Shan
    • 《26th IEEE International Conference on Mobile Data Management, MDM 2025》
    • 2025年
    • June 2, 2025 - June 5, 2025
    • Irvine, CA, United states
    • 会议

    In contemporary urban management, the rapid advancement of technology and widespread use of location-based services provide critical insights, particularly in traffic planning. Analyzing urban spatiotemporal trajectory data reveals diverse perspectives that inform effective city management. This paper focuses on extracting insights from spatiotemporal trajectories and introduces a suite of urban data mining techniques applicable across scenarios, including points of interest diversification. The framework aids in understanding city dynamics, including the distribution and activities of individuals. The method begins by constructing spatiotemporal stay information through two processes: stay point and stay area extraction. Spatiotemporal semantic trajectory data is then integrated with Points of Interest (POI) semantic details. A novel clustering method based on network community detection is proposed. Our experiments show that the method not only achieves comparable or superior results but also ensures time efficiency, aligning with the demands of the big data era. © 2025 IEEE.

    ...
  • 2.A Novel Heuristic Method for Emergency Path Planning Based on Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Characteristics Map

    • 关键词:
    • Heuristic algorithms;Highway planning;Intelligent vehicle highway systems;Motor transportation;Intelligent systems;Roads and streets;Heuristic methods;Traffic congestion;Dynamic road networks;Emergency situation;Heuristic search algorithms;Intelligent transportation systems;Pruning strategy;Road condition;Road congestion;Urban networks
    • Yang, Bowen;Yuan, Lei;Yan, Jin;Ding, Zhiming;Cai, Zhi;Guo, Limin
    • 《2020 International Conference on Industrial Applications of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, BDAI 2020》
    • 2021年
    • November 26, 2020 - November 29, 2020
    • Shenzhen, China
    • 会议

    Emergency path planning technology is one of the hot research points in intelligent transportation systems. There are many methodologies and applications in emergency path planning. However, due to the complexity of the urban network and crowded road conditions, the difficulty of emergency path planning. The objective of emergency path planning is to get the vehicle out of the emergency areas and to its destination in the shortest time. Road congestion caused by emergency situations in cities directly affects the original road network structure. Then the weight of the original road network is no longer suitable as a basis for path recommendation and the value of edges of weight will change over time. To handle the dynamic road network, a novel situational time-stamp heuristic search algorithm (STH) is introduced for the situation space. This algorithm can effectively solve the problem of diversity of situational networks. STH can build a heuristic that adapts to time changes based on the map refresh time, and ensures that the path given in the time window T is optimal. Moreover, STH can give a pruning strategy according to the search time window T, which significantly improves the efficiency of the algorithm. Finally, the path planned by STH is better than the baseline algorithm. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

    ...
  • 3.Robustifying DARTS by Eliminating Information Bypass Leakage via Explicit Sparse Regularization

    • 关键词:
    • Deep learning;Architecture;Auto deep learning;Catastrophic failures;End to end;Gradient-descent;Neural architecture search;Neural architectures;Performance;Search spaces;Sparse regularizations;Training phasis
    • Zhang, Jiuling;Ding, Zhiming
    • 《21st IEEE International Conference on Data Mining, ICDM 2021》
    • 2021年
    • December 7, 2021 - December 10, 2021
    • Virtual, Online, New zealand
    • 会议

    Differentiable architecture search (DARTS) is a promising end to end NAS method which directly optimizes the architecture parameters through general gradient descent. However, DARTS is brittle to the catastrophic failure incurred by the skip connection in the search space. Recent studies also cast doubt on the basic underlying hypotheses of DARTS which are argued to be inherently prone to the performance discrepancy between the continuous-relaxed supernet in the training phase and the discretized finalnet in the evaluation phase. We Figure out that the robustness problem and the skepticism can both be explained by the information bypass leakage during the training of the supernet. This naturally highlights the vital role of the sparsity of architecture parameters in the training phase which has not been well developed in the past. We thus propose a novel sparse-regularized approximation and an efficient mixed-sparsity training scheme to robustify DARTS by eliminating the information bypass leakage. We subsequently conduct extensive experiments on multiple search spaces to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. © 2021 IEEE.

    ...
  • 4.A Novel Heuristic Method for Emergency Path Planning Based on Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Characteristics Map

    • 关键词:
    • Heuristic algorithms;Highway planning;Intelligent vehicle highway systems;Motor transportation;Intelligent systems;Roads and streets;Heuristic methods;Traffic congestion;Dynamic road networks;Emergency situation;Heuristic search algorithms;Intelligent transportation systems;Pruning strategy;Road condition;Road congestion;Urban networks
    • Yang, Bowen;Yuan, Lei;Yan, Jin;Ding, Zhiming;Cai, Zhi;Guo, Limin
    • 《2020 International Conference on Industrial Applications of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, BDAI 2020》
    • 2021年
    • November 26, 2020 - November 29, 2020
    • Shenzhen, China
    • 会议

    Emergency path planning technology is one of the hot research points in intelligent transportation systems. There are many methodologies and applications in emergency path planning. However, due to the complexity of the urban network and crowded road conditions, the difficulty of emergency path planning. The objective of emergency path planning is to get the vehicle out of the emergency areas and to its destination in the shortest time. Road congestion caused by emergency situations in cities directly affects the original road network structure. Then the weight of the original road network is no longer suitable as a basis for path recommendation and the value of edges of weight will change over time. To handle the dynamic road network, a novel situational time-stamp heuristic search algorithm (STH) is introduced for the situation space. This algorithm can effectively solve the problem of diversity of situational networks. STH can build a heuristic that adapts to time changes based on the map refresh time, and ensures that the path given in the time window T is optimal. Moreover, STH can give a pruning strategy according to the search time window T, which significantly improves the efficiency of the algorithm. Finally, the path planned by STH is better than the baseline algorithm.
    © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

    ...
  • 5.Automatically identifying requirements-oriented reviews using a top-down feature extraction approach

    • 关键词:
    • Classification (of information);Domain Knowledge;Requirements engineering;Conceptual model;Mobile applications;Processing applications;Requirements analysis;Requirements ontology;Software applications;Syntactic information;User requirements
    • Song, Rui;Li, Tong;Ding, Zhiming
    • 《27th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2020》
    • 2020年
    • December 1, 2020 - December 4, 2020
    • Singapore, Singapore
    • 会议

    Processing application user reviews has recently been recognized as an efficient approach to explore user requirements. However, most existing approaches focus on mining the reviews themselves without effectively associating the reviews with requirements concepts, limiting the effectiveness of review mining for requirements analysis tasks. In this paper, we propose to automatically identify Requirements-oriented Reviews (RoRs) from software application reviews by considering requirements specific domain knowledge and syntactic information of user reviews. Specifically, we first define a conceptual model of RoRs based on existing requirements ontology and user review categories, establishing connections between the concepts of requirements engineering and user reviews. We then systematically identify the textual features of RoRs by following a conceptual model-driven top-down strategy. Based on such features, we then train effective RoR classifiers to identify RoRs. To evaluate the performance of our approach, we have applied our approach to a real dataset of mobile application reviews, the results of which show that our approach can effectively identify RoRs with an F-measure of 0.8, outperforming than the baselines. © 2020 IEEE.

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  • 6.Image recognition and tracking of flowing sub-flame in downward fire of building insulation materials : A Method based on image morphology, SVM and db-scan algorithm

    • 关键词:
    • Image processing;Fires;Melting;Processing;Building facades;Building fires;Component;Db-scan;Image morphology;Image processing algorithm;Moore neighbor;Neighbour tracing;SVM;Tracking flowing sub-flame
    • Luo, Shengfeng;Ba, Rui
    • 《7th International Conference on Information Science and Control Engineering, ICISCE 2020》
    • 2020年
    • December 18, 2020 - December 20, 2020
    • Changsha, Hunan, China
    • 会议

    The fire of the XPS foams on the building facade is a big threat since their fast burning with melting, dripping and flowing. This work developed an image processing algorithm to track the flowing sub-flame and extract the dynamic flame leading curves. The flame leading edges were extracted with Moore-Neighbor tracing algorithm and the image close operation. The image morphology operation was used to locate the candidate flowing sub-flames, and the true melting sub-flames were identified by SVM and a critical distance to the flame leading edge. The moving trajectory of flowing molten sub-flame was obtained through the db-scan method. The results show a wave-like movement of the flame leading curves. The disturbance to the flame leading curve is more obvious for the bigger dripping at the lower locations. The flowing sub-flames can be well tracked by this image processing method. The results indicate that the size of the flowing sub-flames is close to the lognormal distribution. © 2020 IEEE.

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  • 7.Typical patterns of government response measures and trends for COVID-19 pandemic

    • 关键词:
    • Losses;Epidemiology;Fault tree analysis;Control measures;Economic loss;Emergency response capabilities;Fault tree analyses (FTA);Government response;Health costs;Trend curves;Typical patterns
    • Wang, Chenyang;Gao, Yang;Zhang, Hui
    • 《6th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop Emergency Management using GIS, EM-GIS 2020》
    • 2020年
    • November 3, 2020
    • Seattle, WA, United states
    • 会议

    COVID-19 arouses worldwide attention because huge health costs and economic losses it has caused. Different countries have adopted different control measures. This article explores the main factors affecting the spread of COVID-19 by the fault tree analysis (FTA) method. A government response score table is developed on this basis. Government responses of 14 countries are collected for assessment and are categorized into five groups according to their scores. The suitable functions are fitted to the trend curve piecewise. Correlation between typical patterns of government response and epidemic trends are analyzed. It was found that a rigorous government response will shorten the time to the peak of confirmed curves and accelerate end of the epidemic. This study will improve our understanding of government response measures to COVID-19 and enhance our emergency response capabilities in the future. © 2020 ACM.

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  • 8.Multi-step prediction of traffic flow based on wavelet decomposition correlation matrix

    • 关键词:
    • Information services;Intelligent systems;Matrix algebra;Wavelet decomposition;Intelligent vehicle highway systems;Nearest neighbor search;Intelligent information services;Long-term dependence;Long-term prediction;Multi-step prediction;Sequence informations;Sequence similarity;State-of-the-art methods;Traffic flow forecasting
    • Wang, Zhumei;Zhang, Liang;Ding, Zhiming
    • 《5th International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation, ICECTT 2020》
    • 2020年
    • May 15, 2020 - May 17, 2020
    • Virtual, Nanchang, China
    • 会议

    Accurate traffic flow forecasting plays an increasingly important role in traffic management and intelligent information service. Mining and analyzing the hidden rules and patterns in the historical data of traffic flow are helpful to understand the rules of the data and better assist the prediction. For the long-term sequence similarity measurement, this paper proposes the correlation matrix sequence description method based on wavelet decomposition, which can better express the sequence information and perform better in the long-term prediction compared with Euclidean distance. Furthermore, we propose a similar search scheme based on the nearest neighbor and seasonality. The searched candidates are input into the prediction model as the attention value, and the output of prediction results is assisted at each step. Compared with the state-of-the-art methods on the PeMS dataset, the proposed model can effectively learn the long-term dependence of time series and perform better in detail, showing advantages in multi-step prediction. © 2020 IEEE.

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  • 9.Research on route optimization based on multiagent and genetic algorithm for community patrol

    • 关键词:
    • Multi agent systems;Directed graphs;Autonomous agents;Computational methods;Directed graph models;Multi agent simulation;Multi-agent based modeling;Route information;Route optimization;Security patrols;Simulation framework;Simulation systems
    • Fu, Yanyun;Zeng, Yiping;Wang, Deyong;Zhang, Hui;Gao, Yang;Liu, Yi
    • 《2020 International Conference on Urban Engineering and Management Science, ICUEMS 2020》
    • 2020年
    • April 24, 2020 - April 26, 2020
    • Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
    • 会议

    To solve the problem of route planning for security patrol in smart communities, a simulation framework comprising of multi-agent based model and genetic algorithm (GA) has been proposed for community patrol. The GA is used to determine and evolve the route collection and find the optimal results, while multi-agent simulation model can be used to set constraints and get the objective values of routes. First of all, in view of the traditional directed graph model is insufficient to describe the route information, GIS map is used as the environment of the community patrol inspection, which can efficiently reflect the environment features and facilitate the expansion of traffic and road information. Secondly, the task nodes are visited by the movement of the person agent. The implementation of the simulation system is based on Anylogic, which is beneficial for interacting GA program code. Simulation results show that not only the designed multi-agent system can obtain the optimal results, but also the route planning process is intuitive and visible, which meets the requirements of dynamic route planning. © 2020 IEEE.

    ...
  • 10.Automatically identifying requirements-oriented reviews using a top-down feature extraction approach

    • 关键词:
    • Classification (of information);Domain Knowledge;Requirements engineering;Conceptual model;Mobile applications;Processing applications;Requirements analysis;Requirements ontology;Software applications;Syntactic information;User requirements
    • Song, Rui;Li, Tong;Ding, Zhiming
    • 《27th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2020》
    • 2020年
    • December 1, 2020 - December 4, 2020
    • Singapore, Singapore
    • 会议

    Processing application user reviews has recently been recognized as an efficient approach to explore user requirements. However, most existing approaches focus on mining the reviews themselves without effectively associating the reviews with requirements concepts, limiting the effectiveness of review mining for requirements analysis tasks. In this paper, we propose to automatically identify Requirements-oriented Reviews (RoRs) from software application reviews by considering requirements specific domain knowledge and syntactic information of user reviews. Specifically, we first define a conceptual model of RoRs based on existing requirements ontology and user review categories, establishing connections between the concepts of requirements engineering and user reviews. We then systematically identify the textual features of RoRs by following a conceptual model-driven top-down strategy. Based on such features, we then train effective RoR classifiers to identify RoRs. To evaluate the performance of our approach, we have applied our approach to a real dataset of mobile application reviews, the results of which show that our approach can effectively identify RoRs with an F-measure of 0.8, outperforming than the baselines.
    © 2020 IEEE.

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