项目来源

台湾省政府科研基金(GRB)

项目主持人

李政峰

项目受资助机构

台湾省高雄应用科技大学企业管理系

立项年度

2011

立项时间

未公开

项目编号

NSC100-2410-H151-018

研究期限

未知 / 未知

项目级别

省级

受资助金额

398.00千元台币

学科

经济学

学科代码

未公开

基金类别

应用研究/学术补助

关键词

失业率 ; 磁滞现象 ; 分量回归 ; 共变量 ; 单根检定 ; 不对称性 ; Unemployment rate ; Hysteresis ; Quantile regression ; Covariate ; Unit root test ; Asymmetry

参与者

未公开

参与机构

未公开

项目标书摘要：研究失业率的动态行为有助於澄清：当失业率受到经济冲击而产生失衡时，是否会回到长期的均衡值。此问题的答案可用来评估两个失业率理论在实证上的正确性，分别为自然失业率假说与磁滞假说。实证上评估失业率的行为不可忽略潜在的非线性特徵。因於受景气循环或是劳动市场僵固性的影响，失业率常表现出「上升快，下降慢」的不对称行为。既有文献常使用线性或非线性单根检定来讨论失业率行为，却得到分歧的结果。可能的原因是，这些检定通常假设失业率的调整速度为常数，不受冲击量大小与正负符号的影响。然而，许多文献指出，冲击的大小与正负会影响数列的收敛速度，亦即，冲击量愈大(小),收敛速度愈快(慢);再者，面对正/负冲击，失业率的反应也不相同。本计划拟使用两种分量单根检定(Koenker and Xiao,2004;Galvao,2009),让失业率在不同的分量上，随冲击的大小与正负而有不同的收敛速度。这两种检定除了具有高检定力的优势外，亦可呈现失业率於不同分量的收敛行为，可澄清是否具有不对称的情形。由本计划的实证结果可产生丰富的政策涵义，政府当局可根据目前经济冲击的大小，施以不同强度的经济政策，来降低整体的失业率水准，相较於条件平均数模型只能提供单调的实证意涵，分量回归的结果，显然更具有参考价值。

Application Abstract: Investigating the unemployment dynamics is an important empirical issue since it helps us to distinguish between two competing hypotheses—the natural rate hypothesis and the hysteresis hypothesis.Potential asymmetries in the adjustment process of unemployment can not be ignored while assessing the dynamics of unemployment.Due to business cyclical asymmetries or idiosyncratic factors specific to the labor market,the unemployment rate has been reported in the literature to show fast-up,slow-down behavior.Mixed results are obtained by many studies that using linear or non-linear unit root tests.A possible explanation is that these tests assume that the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium is constant,no matter how big is the shock or whether the shock is positive or negative.It is expected that large shocks can cause the unemployment rate to have prompt and large adjustments toward the equilibrium,and the rate can have different adjustment speeds for positive/negative shocks.The project seeks to re-examine empirically the unemployment rates in the OECD countries through the use of the two new quantile unit root tests,proposed by Koenker and Xiao(2004)and Galvao(2009),respectively.The quantile approaches enjoy high power and allow for different and potentially asymmetric speed of adjustment at the different quantiles,depending on the size and sign of the shocks that hit the unemployment rate.Empirical evidence from this project is expected to clarify the debate on the asymmetries in unemployment,as well as provide much more policy implications for the authorities than those from the conditional mean approaches.

项目受资助省

台湾省