Theoretical foundations and applied instruments to develop a system for intelligent fleet planning and decision support in the Arctic shipping
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One of these scientific problems is the intellectual planning of the Arctic fleet operation at tactical level,as well as modeling its development over a long-term strategic horizon.It is no longer possible to plan an ever-increasing number of ships based on simple expert-analytical methods.The ongoing digitalization and computerization of this sphere require the development of specialized and science-based solutions.Indeed,the traffic of the Northern Sea Route(NSR),which in 2010 was about 8 MTPA(Million tons per annum),in 2020 increased to 33 MTPA,and by 2030 must reach enormous 160 MTPA.The number of large ice-going transport vessels will have to increase from the current 50 to about 200-250 ships.Therefore,the task of intelligent planning of the joint operation of ships and icebreakers is becoming one of the most urgent scientific problems.
An illustration of the practical significance of this research field is that,starting from 2017-2019,all the largest companies that operate the Arctic fleet began to create their own situation centers designed to monitor and plan the operation of ships.However,IT specialists that work on the creation of such centers are aimed mainly at developing a software infrastructure in the field of monitoring and management control.Therefore,these projects hardly ever have a research component aimed at solving the scientific problem described above.For this reason,Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of applied scientific research focused on the creation of new intelligent solutions and means of information support and planning of Arctic shipping.
Within the framework of this project,we will develop a set of new models and solve a number of scientific problems related to various subject areas and aimed at the intellectualization of the Arctic shipping,namely:
• application of combinatorial optimization methods in the tasks of Arctic fleet planning,
• stochastic spatiotemporal modeling of the dynamics of ice conditions and its application to increase the spatiotemporal resolution of deterministic climate models,
• creation of models for predicting the operation parameters of ships and caravans in ice based on analytical approaches and artificial intelligence methods,
• development of methods for direct optimization design of ice-going ships to ensure the versatility and efficiency of design solutions,
• creation of new methods for simultaneous optimization of the speed and trajectory of the vessel in ice under the uncertainty of ice parameters.
The scientific novelty of the project is due to the combination of these areas to solve the described interdisciplinary scientific problem.Theoretical and applied solutions that will be obtained within the framework of the proposed project are of a great practical value and can be implemented in the form of specialized services integrated into digital platforms for intelligent support of Arctic shipping.
Expected results:The project will result in new scientific and methodological solutions in the field of intelligent planning of Arctic fleet operation:
1.To solve the problem of a joined planning of ships and icebreakers,we will apply combinatorial optimization methods on the graph and take into account the multiple types of ships,as well as their different propulsion performance.The solutions obtained are supposed to be further used as the basis for specialized digital services that can be applied in practical tasks.
2.We will use the approaches of scenario-based stochastic spatiotemporal modeling of local ice parameters to predict the future navigational ice conditions and form typified ice maps.This task is necessary to form the scenarios of changes in the navigational ice situation in the Arctic on the horizon up to 2050,which has a direct impact on the required number of icebreakers and transport ships.
З.The project involves the creation and validation of the models to predict parameters of ship and caravan operation in ice based on the results of experiments in the ice basin,as well as the artificial intelligence methods.The importance of this problem is due to the fact that all the practical results of the Arctic fleet modeling and planning are directly related to the accuracy and adequacy of the models of ship operation in changing ice conditions.The results of work in this area are expected to be used in various scientific and practical studies on the modeling of Arctic marine transport systems.
4.In order to improve the quality of the initial design of Arctic ships and increase their energy efficiency,the we plan to develop methods for the optimization ship design analysis and create new algorithmic solutions to implement shipbuilding CAD systems of a conceptual type.The results of solving this problem will form the basis for practical solutions that are relevant for Russian shipbuilding design bureaus.
5.Within the framework of the project,we will pay special attention to the development of new methods of ice routing and improvement of previously developed solutions.The work will be carried out taking into account the experience of the authors in industrial projects.In particular,we will propose solutions for the problem of joined optimization of the trajectory and speed of the vessel on each segment.It is planned to carry out a comprehensive validation of the obtained solutions based on the full-scale data.
The described results correspond to the advanced world level of research in this area,and in terms of the practical component are many times greater than similar foreign developments.This is due to the fact that at present Russia is the only country that has practical experience in Arctic shipping and actively develops the solutions in the field of its intellectualization.Access to up-to-date data will be provided due to the involvement of our scientific team in industrial projects.
One of these scientific problems is the intellectual planning of the Arctic fleet operation at tactical level,as well as modeling its development over a long-term strategic horizon.It is no longer possible to plan an ever-increasing number of ships based on simple expert-analytical methods.The ongoing digitalization and computerization of this sphere require the development of specialized and science-based solutions.Indeed,the traffic of the Northern Sea Route(NSR),which in 2010 was about 8 MTPA(Million tons per annum),in 2020 increased to 33 MTPA,and by 2030 must reach enormous 160 MTPA.The number of large ice-going transport vessels will have to increase from the current 50 to about 200-250 ships.Therefore,the task of intelligent planning of the joint operation of ships and icebreakers is becoming one of the most urgent scientific problems.
An illustration of the practical significance of this research field is that,starting from 2017-2019,all the largest companies that operate the Arctic fleet began to create their own situation centers designed to monitor and plan the operation of ships.However,IT specialists that work on the creation of such centers are aimed mainly at developing a software infrastructure in the field of monitoring and management control.Therefore,these projects hardly ever have a research component aimed at solving the scientific problem described above.For this reason,Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of applied scientific research focused on the creation of new intelligent solutions and means of information support and planning of Arctic shipping.
Within the framework of this project,we will develop a set of new models and solve a number of scientific problems related to various subject areas and aimed at the intellectualization of the Arctic shipping,namely:
• application of combinatorial optimization methods in the tasks of Arctic fleet planning,
• stochastic spatiotemporal modeling of the dynamics of ice conditions and its application to increase the spatiotemporal resolution of deterministic climate models,
• creation of models for predicting the operation parameters of ships and caravans in ice based on analytical approaches and artificial intelligence methods,
• development of methods for direct optimization design of ice-going ships to ensure the versatility and efficiency of design solutions,
• creation of new methods for simultaneous optimization of the speed and trajectory of the vessel in ice under the uncertainty of ice parameters.
The scientific novelty of the project is due to the combination of these areas to solve the described interdisciplinary scientific problem.Theoretical and applied solutions that will be obtained within the framework of the proposed project are of a great practical value and can be implemented in the form of specialized services integrated into digital platforms for intelligent support of Arctic shipping.
Expected results:The project will result in new scientific and methodological solutions in the field of intelligent planning of Arctic fleet operation:
1.To solve the problem of a joined planning of ships and icebreakers,we will apply combinatorial optimization methods on the graph and take into account the multiple types of ships,as well as their different propulsion performance.The solutions obtained are supposed to be further used as the basis for specialized digital services that can be applied in practical tasks.
2.We will use the approaches of scenario-based stochastic spatiotemporal modeling of local ice parameters to predict the future navigational ice conditions and form typified ice maps.This task is necessary to form the scenarios of changes in the navigational ice situation in the Arctic on the horizon up to 2050,which has a direct impact on the required number of icebreakers and transport ships.
З.The project involves the creation and validation of the models to predict parameters of ship and caravan operation in ice based on the results of experiments in the ice basin,as well as the artificial intelligence methods.The importance of this problem is due to the fact that all the practical results of the Arctic fleet modeling and planning are directly related to the accuracy and adequacy of the models of ship operation in changing ice conditions.The results of work in this area are expected to be used in various scientific and practical studies on the modeling of Arctic marine transport systems.
4.In order to improve the quality of the initial design of Arctic ships and increase their energy efficiency,the we plan to develop methods for the optimization ship design analysis and create new algorithmic solutions to implement shipbuilding CAD systems of a conceptual type.The results of solving this problem will form the basis for practical solutions that are relevant for Russian shipbuilding design bureaus.
5.Within the framework of the project,we will pay special attention to the development of new methods of ice routing and improvement of previously developed solutions.The work will be carried out taking into account the experience of the authors in industrial projects.In particular,we will propose solutions for the problem of joined optimization of the trajectory and speed of the vessel on each segment.It is planned to carry out a comprehensive validation of the obtained solutions based on the full-scale data.
The described results correspond to the advanced world level of research in this area,and in terms of the practical component are many times greater than similar foreign developments.This is due to the fact that at present Russia is the only country that has practical experience in Arctic shipping and actively develops the solutions in the field of its intellectualization.Access to up-to-date data will be provided due to the involvement of our scientific team in industrial projects.
1.Ship Movement Peculiarities in Real Ice Environments: Theoretical and Experimental Approaches
- Dobrodeev, Aleksei A.;Sazonov, Kirill E.
- Springer
- 2025年
- 图书